Water security implications of climate and socio-economic stressors for river basin management

Quan V. Dau*, Adebayo J. Adeloye

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)


This study investigated the impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on water resources in the Beas-Sutlej river basin, Himalaya. Multiple-model ensembles of five climate models forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario and the Shared Socio-economic Pathway SSP 1 were used. A validated Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model of the basin was used for assessing the resulting sectoral water allocations. The results showed increasing runoff during the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons, principally as the respective consequences of increased glaciers melting and higher rainfall. The finding also indicates that ensemble mean annual irrigation water demand will decrease by between 8 and 13% in Punjab due to the conversion of agricultural land to urban centres but will increase in Rajasthan by about 14%. These outcomes will be useful for the Bhakra and Beas Management Board in developing adaptation strategies to cope with any future water shortages that may occur in the basin.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1097-1112
Number of pages16
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Issue number7
Early online date27 May 2021
Publication statusPublished - 2021


  • climate change
  • hydrology
  • irrigation water demand
  • socio-economic change
  • WEAP

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology


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