Variable input parameter influence on river corridor prediction

Tegenu Zerfu, Lindsay Catherine Beevers, Alessandra Crosato, Nigel Wright

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)
91 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

This paper considers the erodible river corridor, which is the area in which the main river channel is free to migrate over a period of time. Due to growing anthropogenic pressure, predicting the corridor width has become increasingly important for the planning of development along rivers. Several approaches can be used to predict the future erodible corridor width but the results possess a large degree of uncertainty in all cases. The work presented here addresses prediction of the erodible corridor width of a reach of the River Irwell, UK, taking into account the uncertainty that arises from input parameters such as representative discharge, channel width, sediment and so on. The work adopts a probabilistic framework for assessment using Monte Carlo type simulations. Future river corridor width predictions, based on a model calibrated on past observations, are presented in a probabilistic manner using confidence levels. The results indicate the necessity of capturing input variability in the modelling process. Furthermore, the understanding gained from a relatively simple model used in a probabilistic framework is greater than a more complex one where only a few runs are feasible.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)199-209
Number of pages11
JournalProceedings of the ICE - Water Management
Volume168
Issue number5
Early online date3 Dec 2014
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 2015

Keywords

  • Mathematical modelling
  • Risk & probabilistic analysis
  • River engineering

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology

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