Using scenario planning in the development of football at a national level

Purpose: Cognisant of the popularity and societal importance of football, we address how scenario planning might enable national agencies to better understand and manage significant uncertainties while developing inter-related but separate strategic agendas.

Methodology: Stakeholder analysis was followed by the identification of impactful and uncertain factors that could influence elite level national football. Workshops were facilitated with the Boards of Directors of focal stakeholders.

Findings: ‘Availability of finance’ and ‘Societal impact’ were identified as drivers, the factors with the highest impact and uncertainty. These two drivers acted as anchors for the group development of skeletons of four alternative scenario narratives.

Practical implications: Conversations among workshop participants, coupled with the report to national agency Boards of Directors, have encouraged fresh thinking, informed analysis and, ultimately, better alignment between stakeholders.

Research contribution: In a complex social arena such as elite national football, we highlight the requirement for nuanced stakeholder analysis to consider the arena dynamics and ways in which alternative futures impact stakeholders differently.

Originality: The social arena concept offers a powerful approach to undertaking scenario analysis in arenas which are inherently political involving multiple organisations with multi-faceted relationships extending well beyond the economic and where power is contested.