Uncertainty quantification in the techno-economic analysis of emission reduction technologies: a tutorial case study on CO2 mineralization

Till Strunge*, Phil Renforth, Mijndert Van der Spek*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)
58 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The pathways toward net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 should be designed based on solid scientific evidence. Ex ante system analysis tools, such as techno-economic assessments (TEAs), are key instruments to guide decision-makers. As ex ante TEAs of CO2 mitigation technologies embody a high level of uncertainty, the informed use of uncertainty analysis becomes crucial for meaningful interpretation and communication of TEA outputs. To foster enhanced appreciation and the use of uncertainty analysis, we compare multiple uncertainty analysis methods for ex ante TEAs, using a case study on CO2 mineralization in the cement industry. We show that local sensitivity analysis tools such as one-way analysis, which are most often used by TEA practitioners, may not suffice for deriving reliable conclusions and provide guidance on how to apply global sensitivity analysis methods, such as variance-based indicators for TEAs in this field.
Original languageEnglish
Article number1182969
JournalFrontiers in Energy Research
Volume11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 26 May 2023

Keywords

  • CO mineralization
  • carbon capture and utilization or
  • storage
  • techno-economic assessment
  • uncertainty analysis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
  • Fuel Technology
  • Energy Engineering and Power Technology
  • Economics and Econometrics

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