Time horizons and smoothing in the Bank of England’s reaction function: the contrast between the standard GMM and ex ante forecast approaches

David Cobham, Yue Kang

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

    1 Citation (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The monetary policy reaction function of the Bank of England is estimated by the standard GMM approach and the ex-ante forecast method developed by Goodhart (2005), with particular attention to the horizons for inflation and output at which each approach gives the best fit. The horizons for the ex-ante approach are much closer to what is implied by the Bank’s view of the transmission mechanism, while the GMM approach produces an implausibly slow adjustment of the interest rate, and suffers from a weak instruments problem. These findings suggest a strong preference for the ex-ante approach.
    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)662-679
    Number of pages18
    JournalOxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics
    Volume75
    Issue number5
    Early online date4 Jul 2012
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Oct 2013

    Keywords

    • E43
    • E52
    • MONETARY-POLICY RULES
    • MODELS

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