The trends and projections of greenhouse gas emission by the livestock sector in Malaysia

The greenhouse gas (GHG) emission from the livestock sector is a major concern as GHG can contribute to climate change event such as global warming. The country demand for livestock is rapidly increasing, due to population and economic growth. However, in Malaysia, there is still limited studies on GHG assessment from the livestock sector and its projection based on the self-sufficient level under population growth. In this study, the GHG emissions of different livestock were estimated using the livestock population data published in the year 2010–2019, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Malaysia’s livestock sector is dominated by poultry, swine, non-dairy cattle and goat. The emission is dependent on the livestock species and population. For enteric fermentation, non-dairy cattle accounted for 73.91% of the CH₄ emission. For manure management, the main contributors were swine and poultry, accounting for 61.49% and 26.24% of the CH₄ emission. Poultry and non-dairy cattle contributed to 63.25% and 20.79% of the direct N₂O emission from manure management. Comparatively, enteric fermentation was observed to contribute for more than 50% share of the total CO₂-eq emission. The GHG projection was carried out in two scenarios based on the population projection, self-sufficient level and product consumption per capita for the year 2019, 2030 and 2040. The scenario analysis showed that increasing the animal mass by 1% without increasing the livestock population could help in elevating the sufficiency level of food product even with increasing product demand. Graphic abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.]