The main determinants of global portfolio flows dynamics

Any episode of global financial turbulence can lead to the freezing and significant reversal of portfolio flows across different countries, emphasizing the need for adequate pre-emptive financial policy responses. This study investigates the sensitivities of global portfolio flows dynamics to a variety of global (push) and domestic (pull) determinants in a sample of 43 countries for the period from Q1 2005 to Q4 2020. Using panel regressions incorporating country fixed effects, we corroborate previous empirical evidence that push determinants remain the most important in driving portfolio inflows/outflows. The analysis shows that portfolio inflows/outflows decrease with the level of the expected change in the US central bank policy rate, world inflation surprise index, macro-risk index, and increase with better economic sentiment expectations, and investors’ confidence index. The biggest difference in exposures of global portfolio flows dynamics comes with the level of the short-term world interest rates, implying that they may discourage portfolio outflows but not inflows.