TY - JOUR
T1 - The effects of super spreading events and movement control measures on the COVID-19 pandemic in Malaysia
AU - Herng, Lai Chee
AU - Singh, Sarbhan
AU - Sundram, Bala Murali
AU - Zamri, Ahmed Syahmi Syafiq Md
AU - Vei, Tan Cia
AU - Aris, Tahir
AU - Ibrahim, Hishamshah
AU - Abdullah, Noor Hisham
AU - Dass, Sarat Chandra
AU - Gill, Balvinder Singh
N1 - © 2022. The Author(s).
PY - 2022/2/9
Y1 - 2022/2/9
N2 - This paper aims to develop an automated web application to generate validated daily effective reproduction numbers (Rt) which can be used to examine the effects of super-spreading events due to mass gatherings and the effectiveness of the various Movement Control Order (MCO) stringency levels on the outbreak progression of COVID-19 in Malaysia. The effective reproduction number, Rt, was estimated by adopting and modifying an Rt estimation algorithm using a validated distribution mean of 3.96 and standard deviation of 4.75 with a seven-day sliding window. The Rt values generated were validated using thea moving window SEIR model with a negative binomial likelihood fitted using methods from the Bayesian inferential framework. A Pearson's correlation between the Rt values estimated by the algorithm and the SEIR model was r = 0.70, p < 0.001 and r = 0.81, p < 0.001 during the validation period The Rt increased to reach the highest values at 3.40 (95% CI 1.47, 6.14) and 1.72 (95% CI 1.54, 1.90) due to the Sri Petaling and Sabah electoral process during the second and third waves of COVID-19 respectively. The MCOs was able to reduce the Rt values by 63.2 to 77.1% and 37.0 to 47.0% during the second and third waves of COVID-19, respectively. Mass gathering events were one of the important drivers of the COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia. However, COVID-19 transmission can be fuelled by noncompliance to Standard Operating Procedure, population mobility, ventilation and environmental factors.
AB - This paper aims to develop an automated web application to generate validated daily effective reproduction numbers (Rt) which can be used to examine the effects of super-spreading events due to mass gatherings and the effectiveness of the various Movement Control Order (MCO) stringency levels on the outbreak progression of COVID-19 in Malaysia. The effective reproduction number, Rt, was estimated by adopting and modifying an Rt estimation algorithm using a validated distribution mean of 3.96 and standard deviation of 4.75 with a seven-day sliding window. The Rt values generated were validated using thea moving window SEIR model with a negative binomial likelihood fitted using methods from the Bayesian inferential framework. A Pearson's correlation between the Rt values estimated by the algorithm and the SEIR model was r = 0.70, p < 0.001 and r = 0.81, p < 0.001 during the validation period The Rt increased to reach the highest values at 3.40 (95% CI 1.47, 6.14) and 1.72 (95% CI 1.54, 1.90) due to the Sri Petaling and Sabah electoral process during the second and third waves of COVID-19 respectively. The MCOs was able to reduce the Rt values by 63.2 to 77.1% and 37.0 to 47.0% during the second and third waves of COVID-19, respectively. Mass gathering events were one of the important drivers of the COVID-19 outbreak in Malaysia. However, COVID-19 transmission can be fuelled by noncompliance to Standard Operating Procedure, population mobility, ventilation and environmental factors.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85124267147&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41598-022-06341-1
DO - 10.1038/s41598-022-06341-1
M3 - Article
C2 - 35140319
SN - 2045-2322
VL - 12
JO - Scientific Reports
JF - Scientific Reports
IS - 1
M1 - 2197
ER -