The credit crunch: short-term UK housing market correction or long-term tipping point?

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

142 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Six years on in 2014, the credit crunch seems more than a short-term housing market cyclical correction to house prices. The boom and bust of the noughties both revealed and exacerbated long-term trends in the housing market in the UK. But is there sufficient evidence to suggest a fundamental change to the housing system? Home ownership has peaked and there has been a dramatic expansion of the private rented sector. Economic prospects have been transformed from persistent growth to long-term stagnation with the prospect of 10 years of fiscal austerity and falling real incomes. At the same time, there is potential regime change in the accessibility of mortgage finance. The tightening of public finances has deflated expectations. The focus of the impact has been the younger generation who face a cluster of disadvantages – in the housing market but also in the labour market and in education debts. Traditional aspirations are being rethought in the face of long-term market constraints. These issues will be discussed within a framework defined by a (macro) demand function for housing and the answer to the question is seen to depend on the nature of ultimate housing policy and supply responses.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)70-90
Number of pages21
JournalInternational Journal of Housing Policy
Volume16
Issue number1
Early online date14 Aug 2015
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016

Fingerprint

housing market
credit
housing
housing supply
public finance
housing policy
stagnation
debt
labor market
accessibility
private sector
finance
indebtedness
ownership
income
education
regime
market
demand
trend

Keywords

  • house price cycles
  • housing supply
  • mortgage finance
  • owner occupation
  • private rented sector
  • UK

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

Cite this

@article{f96cb7977441441cadadccb8ada8b2a4,
title = "The credit crunch: short-term UK housing market correction or long-term tipping point?",
abstract = "Six years on in 2014, the credit crunch seems more than a short-term housing market cyclical correction to house prices. The boom and bust of the noughties both revealed and exacerbated long-term trends in the housing market in the UK. But is there sufficient evidence to suggest a fundamental change to the housing system? Home ownership has peaked and there has been a dramatic expansion of the private rented sector. Economic prospects have been transformed from persistent growth to long-term stagnation with the prospect of 10 years of fiscal austerity and falling real incomes. At the same time, there is potential regime change in the accessibility of mortgage finance. The tightening of public finances has deflated expectations. The focus of the impact has been the younger generation who face a cluster of disadvantages – in the housing market but also in the labour market and in education debts. Traditional aspirations are being rethought in the face of long-term market constraints. These issues will be discussed within a framework defined by a (macro) demand function for housing and the answer to the question is seen to depend on the nature of ultimate housing policy and supply responses.",
keywords = "house price cycles, housing supply, mortgage finance, owner occupation, private rented sector, UK",
author = "Colin Jones",
year = "2016",
doi = "10.1080/14616718.2015.1067971",
language = "English",
volume = "16",
pages = "70--90",
journal = "International Journal of Housing Policy",
issn = "1949-1247",
number = "1",

}

The credit crunch : short-term UK housing market correction or long-term tipping point? / Jones, Colin.

In: International Journal of Housing Policy, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2016, p. 70-90.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - The credit crunch

T2 - short-term UK housing market correction or long-term tipping point?

AU - Jones, Colin

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - Six years on in 2014, the credit crunch seems more than a short-term housing market cyclical correction to house prices. The boom and bust of the noughties both revealed and exacerbated long-term trends in the housing market in the UK. But is there sufficient evidence to suggest a fundamental change to the housing system? Home ownership has peaked and there has been a dramatic expansion of the private rented sector. Economic prospects have been transformed from persistent growth to long-term stagnation with the prospect of 10 years of fiscal austerity and falling real incomes. At the same time, there is potential regime change in the accessibility of mortgage finance. The tightening of public finances has deflated expectations. The focus of the impact has been the younger generation who face a cluster of disadvantages – in the housing market but also in the labour market and in education debts. Traditional aspirations are being rethought in the face of long-term market constraints. These issues will be discussed within a framework defined by a (macro) demand function for housing and the answer to the question is seen to depend on the nature of ultimate housing policy and supply responses.

AB - Six years on in 2014, the credit crunch seems more than a short-term housing market cyclical correction to house prices. The boom and bust of the noughties both revealed and exacerbated long-term trends in the housing market in the UK. But is there sufficient evidence to suggest a fundamental change to the housing system? Home ownership has peaked and there has been a dramatic expansion of the private rented sector. Economic prospects have been transformed from persistent growth to long-term stagnation with the prospect of 10 years of fiscal austerity and falling real incomes. At the same time, there is potential regime change in the accessibility of mortgage finance. The tightening of public finances has deflated expectations. The focus of the impact has been the younger generation who face a cluster of disadvantages – in the housing market but also in the labour market and in education debts. Traditional aspirations are being rethought in the face of long-term market constraints. These issues will be discussed within a framework defined by a (macro) demand function for housing and the answer to the question is seen to depend on the nature of ultimate housing policy and supply responses.

KW - house price cycles

KW - housing supply

KW - mortgage finance

KW - owner occupation

KW - private rented sector

KW - UK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84939185652&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1080/14616718.2015.1067971

DO - 10.1080/14616718.2015.1067971

M3 - Article

VL - 16

SP - 70

EP - 90

JO - International Journal of Housing Policy

JF - International Journal of Housing Policy

SN - 1949-1247

IS - 1

ER -