Techno-Economic and Environmental Performance Assessment of a 1 MW Grid-Connected Photovoltaic System Under Subtropical Monsoon Conditions

The high expansion rate of industrial-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems in emerging economies requires proper performance prediction models that consider particular climatic variabilities. Although the theoretical potential of solar energy in South Asia is well documented, there still exists a gap in the validation of simulation models to operational data over long periods in subtropical monsoon climates. Unlike prior studies, this work combines multi-year operational data with dynamic TRNSYS simulations to quantify both technical and environmental performance of a 1 MW PV system under subtropical monsoon conditions. This paper provides a detailed performance evaluation of a 1 MW grid-connected PV system located in Punjab, Pakistan. The actual performance of the system is compared with a dynamic simulation model that is created in the Transient System Simulation Tool (TRNSYS) using three years of operational data. Four different scenarios are analyzed: (1) Ideal Theoretical Operation, (2) Actual Field Data, (3) Simulated Operation with Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT), and (4) Simulated Operation without MPPT. The results reveal that the real system produced an average of 1342 MWh/year, whereas the MPPT-enabled simulation predicted 1664 MWh/year, indicating a performance difference of 19.3%. Statistical validation revealed a strong correlation (𝑅²=0.84) between the model and reality, yet identified a normalized Root Mean Square Error (nRMSE) of 26.8%. This deviation represents a performance gap which is deconvoluted into agricultural soiling losses and grid curtailment. The research work quantifies the technical effect of MPPT where a 27% operational advantage is realized in comparison to fixed-voltage cases, proving its necessity in climates with high diffuse radiation during monsoon seasons. Economic analysis demonstrates a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of $0.0378/kWh of the existing system, and a Simple Payback Time (SPBT) of 4.74 years at the current industrial tariffs. Sensitivity analysis also indicates that in case of an increase in grid tariffs to 50 PKR/kWh, Internal Rate of Return (IRR) increases to 18.8%. Environmental analysis confirms a carbon emission reduction of 765 tons/year. These results validate the techno-economic feasibility of large-scale PV in the area and provide an important understanding of the critical yield losses in monsoon seasons, which offers an effective robust benchmark for future industrial energy policy in developing economies.