Structural Model for US Gun Violence

The US has alarmingly high, and rising, gun violence and fatality rates. While it is generally believed that supply side policy is critical in addressing the problem, legislation has been relatively ineffective, for example the Gun Violence Prevention and Community Safety Act of 2020. Previous literature has identified hotspots and proximate determinants, particularly urban locations. Effective supply side policy would require application of optimal transport methods. We apply novel and current generation structural models to identify the spatial network for supply of guns and propagation of violence risks. This provides clean quantification of spatial supply chains and associated costs of transport between nodes, which are necessary for mitigation using optimal transport and logistics network management methods.