Spatial economic change and long-term urban office rental trends

Colin Jones, Allison M. Orr

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    The paper starts with the presumption that spatial economic change will have a strong influence on local long-term office rental trends. A number of hypotheses are developed which draw together the interaction between the office property market and these spatial economic forces, differentiating in particular by urban size and growth of.service employment. The subsequent statistical analyses test these hypotheses by applying an analysis of variance decomposition technique which distinguishes national and local components of rental growth rates in 30 office centres in the UK. The results are then considered within both a formal framework of an a priori typology of urban centres and alternatively through an agnostic set of centre clusters. The empirical evidence demonstrates the importance of national economic influences and that office property development does not anticipate growth even in expanding areas which, in turn, may be influenced by conservative planning controls in the UK. Abstracting the national influence creates a long-term diversity of local rental trends dependent less on the changed spatial pattern of demand and probably more on the nature of local property constraints. These constraints aret not purely physical as it appears that the development industry is more responsive in certain areas, notably the South East and East. The implication is that spatial economic change has been influenced by planning policies, property market processes and development constraints. © 2004 Regional Studies Association.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)281-292
    Number of pages12
    JournalRegional Studies
    Volume38
    Issue number3
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - May 2004

    Fingerprint

    Spatial economics
    Economic change
    Property market
    Policy planning
    Industry
    Planning
    Analysis of variance
    Variance decomposition
    Economics
    Interaction
    Market process
    Property development
    Regional studies
    Market development
    Empirical evidence
    Hypothesis test

    Keywords

    • Constraints
    • Development
    • Offices
    • Rents
    • Services
    • Urban

    Cite this

    Jones, Colin ; Orr, Allison M. / Spatial economic change and long-term urban office rental trends. In: Regional Studies. 2004 ; Vol. 38, No. 3. pp. 281-292.
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    Spatial economic change and long-term urban office rental trends. / Jones, Colin; Orr, Allison M.

    In: Regional Studies, Vol. 38, No. 3, 05.2004, p. 281-292.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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