Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Systems to Floods: A Coupled Probabilistic Network Flow and LISFLOOD-FP Model

Yunzhu Yin, Dimitry V. Val, Qingping Zou, Daniil Yurchenko

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Abstract

In this paper, a network-flow model was constructed to simulate the performance of interdependent critical infrastructure systems during flood hazards, when there is shortage of commodities such as electrical power and water. The model enabled us to control the distribution of commodities among different consumers whose demand cannot be fully met. Incorporating time-variance in the model allowed for evaluating the time evolution of the functional level of the infrastructure systems and quantifying their resilience. As a demonstration of the model’s capability, the network model was coupled with a raster-based hydraulic flooding model in the way of Monte Carlo simulations. It was then used to investigate the cascading effects of flood-related failures of individual infrastructure assets on the performance of the critical infrastructure systems of a coastal community under different flooding scenarios and future climate impacts. The coupled modelling framework is essential for correctly assessing the interdependences and cascading effects in the infrastructure systems in the case of flood hazards. While in the considered example, the extent of inundation becomes less severe with a changing climate, the risk to infrastructure does not recede because of the cascading effects. This behaviour could not be captured by the flood model alone.
Original languageEnglish
Article number683
JournalWater
Volume14
Issue number5
Early online date22 Feb 2022
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Mar 2022

Keywords

  • Cascading effects
  • Climate changes
  • Flood modelling
  • Infrastructure networks
  • LISFLOOD-FP
  • Natural hazard
  • Network flow model
  • Sea level rise
  • Urban flood
  • Urban resilience

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Water Science and Technology
  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Aquatic Science
  • Biochemistry

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