Prospective life cycle and techno-economic analysis of direct air capture-to-urea production under CBAM

This work investigates the environmental and economic implications of integrating Direct Air Capture (DAC) technologies with the urea fertiliser process under CO₂ pricing policies. The developed framework combines process modelling with prospective life cycle and techno-economic assessments. A cradle-to-grave life cycle analysis (LCA) evaluates the environmental footprint of DAC-urea compared to the conventional fossil-based route. Furthermore, a prospective LCA assesses the environmental impact of DAC-urea in 2050 under different climate scenarios. Different foreground system scenarios based on learning curves are defined. Ultimately, the focus is to investigate the market advantage that might arise given improved environmental performance of DAC-urea under EU's carbon tax on imported carbon-intensive goods. Denmark and Egypt serve as case studies to demonstrate how policies can incentivise sustainable urea production globally. Results demonstrate that DAC-urea significantly lowers emissions compared to fossil-based urea when powered by low-carbon grids (<0.33 kgCO₂eq./kWh). Electrolysis emerges as the dominant emissions contributor, responsible for 60–70 % of the emissions. The prospective analysis indicates that DAC-urea in Egypt could cut its carbon footprint from 4800 to 4980 kgCO₂eq./t urea to 780–1580 kgCO₂eq./t urea by 2050. Employing DAC for urea production is poised to reach cost parity with fossil-based urea by 2050 under the CBAM policy. In Denmark, the high technological learning scenario requires carbon prices between 82 and 183 $/tCO₂ to reach cost parity with fossil-based urea. In Egypt, environmental taxes range from 117 to 210 $/tCO₂. This work demonstrates how ambitious climate policies can propel the development of viable, low-carbon urea business models with DAC as source of CO₂, bridging the gap between sustainability and economic viability.