Projecting impacts of uncertain climate change on future energy demand

This paper presents a novel approach for developing a Demand Profile Synthesis Tool (DPSTool) involving the decomposition of electricity demand into subcomponents and selectively applying cutting-edge statistical modelling techniques for predicting (short/long-term) domestic energy demand patterns. The DPSTool will be underpinned by a new ‘climate module’ integrated within a previously developed high-tech HMM_GP model. The ‘climate module’ can simulate the impacts of key climatic variables on the electricity demand scenarios. The paper will demonstrate the key stages of statistical methodology development and validation procedure of ‘climate module’ using a residential case-study building selected from a community ‘Auroville’, located in India.