Probabilistic models for Heart Disease and related conditions

The mortality rates in the UK has changed over time. The prevalence of Ischaemic Heart Disease (IHD) and stroke in the UK has been decreasing which has contributed to the changes between 1981 and 2000. The major risk factors associated with IHD and stroke, in addition to age, sex and smoking, are body mass index, diabetes, hypertension and hypercholesterolaemia. The objectives of this study is to investigate the effect of changes in the risk factors and quantify the extent of these changes. The results showed that smoking and hypertension has the highest effect on IHD, stroke and mortality for males and females. Lower rates of hypertension would reduce the prevalence of IHD and stroke as it has a direct effect on IHD, stroke and mortality. Changes in the risk factors would increase or decrease the number of IHD, stroke and deaths. Deaths from these factors could be reduced if the smoking ban policy and promotion towards no smoking are done widely and reducing the level of hypertension by living a healthy lifestyle.