Probabilistic modelling of deterioration of reinforced concrete structures

Reinforced concrete (RC) structures deteriorate over time which affects their strength and serviceability. To develop measures for protecting new RC structures against deterioration and assess the condition of existing RC structures subjected to deterioration an understanding of the deterioration processes and the ability to predict their development, including structural consequences, are essential. This problem has attracted significant attention from researchers, including those working in the area of structural reliability (in particular within the JCSS) since there are major uncertainties associated with the deterioration processes and their structural effects. The paper presents an overview of the probabilistic modelling of various deterioration processes affecting RC structures such as corrosion of reinforcing steel, freezing-thawing, alkali-aggregate reaction, sulphate attack and fatigue, and their structural implications, including the historical perspective and current state-of-the-art. It also addresses the issues related to the inspection/monitoring of deteriorating RC structures and the analysis of collected data taking into account relevant uncertainties. Examples illustrating the application of the presented probabilistic models are provided. Finally, the current gaps in the knowledge related to the problem, which require further attention, are discussed.