Probabilistic future cooling loads for mechanically cooled offices

Probabilistic future climate projections provide a challenge to building modellers aiming to quantify potential cooling loads and energy use of simulated buildings. The scale of information means that conventional simulation methods might not be suitable. This paper applies an emulation tool, developed by the Low Carbon Futures project, to provide probabilistic assessments of future cooling loads for a case-study office building. The concept of future building failure, as applied to a mechanically cooled building, is discussed and the use of the tool in such a circumstance overviewed. A range of information that might be gained from the tool, such as hourly cooling loads, coolth requirement and electrical consumption, are presented and the use of such metrics discussed.