Probabilistic climate projections with dynamic building simulation: Predicting overheating in dwellings

D. P. Jenkins, S. Patidar, P. F G Banfill, G. J. Gibson

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

61 Citations (Scopus)


This study, as part of the Low Carbon Futures project, proposes a methodology to incorporate probabilistic climate projections into dynamic building simulation analyses of overheating in dwellings. Using a large climate projection database, suitable building software and statistical techniques (focussing on principal component analysis), output is presented that demonstrates the future overheating risk of a building in the form of a probability curve. Such output could be used by building engineers and architects to design a building to an acceptable future overheating risk level, i.e. providing evidence that the building, with specific adaptation measures to prevent overheating, should achieve thermal comfort for the majority of future climate projections. This methodology is overviewed and the use of the algorithm proposed in relation to existing building practices. While the methodology is being applied to a range of buildings and scenarios, this study concentrates on night-time overheating in UK dwellings with simple and achievable adaptation measures investigated. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1723-1731
Number of pages9
JournalEnergy and Buildings
Issue number7
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2011


  • Building simulation
  • Climate change
  • Overheating
  • Probability


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