Prediction of TEC During Indonesia Earthquakes Using ARMA Based on GPS Data

S. Kiruthiga; S. Mythili; A. Krishnakumar; R. Mukesh; Sarat C. Dass; M. Vijay; M. Praveen Kumar; M. Prashanth

doi:10.1007/978-3-031-76937-5_38

Prediction of TEC During Indonesia Earthquakes Using ARMA Based on GPS Data

S. Kiruthiga^*
, S. Mythili
, A. Krishnakumar
, R. Mukesh
, Sarat C. Dass
, M. Vijay
, M. Praveen Kumar
, M. Prashanth

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Mathematical & Computer Sciences

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

Earthquake prediction remains a challenging scientific endeavor due to its complex nature and potentially devastating consequences. This study explores the possibility of using fluctuations in Total Electron Content (TEC) within the ionosphere as potential indicators of impending seismic activity. By analyzing data gathered from the BAKO station, an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model was utilized to anticipate TEC values preceding two significant earthquakes, one in Papua, Indonesia, occurring on February 5, 2004, and another in Western New Guinea on April 6, 2013. Evaluation of the predictive accuracy involves metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Normalized RMSE (NRMSE). The findings suggest promise in the ARMA model’s ability to capture TEC variations associated with seismic events, discrepancies between predicted and actual TEC values are evident. This study offers valuable insights into the potential utility of TEC anomalies as precursors to earthquakes, underscoring the necessity for further research to refine prediction capabilities in this domain.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Advances in Aerospace and Navigation Systems. iCAAN 2024
Editors	R. Mukesh, D. Venkata Ratnam, P. Theerthamalai, Prince Raj Lawrence Raj
Publisher	Springer
Pages	321-329
Number of pages	9
ISBN (Electronic)	9783031769375
ISBN (Print)	9783031769368
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-76937-5_38
Publication status	Published - 21 May 2025
Event	1st International Conference on Advances in Aerospace and Navigation Systems 2024 - Bangalore, India Duration: 22 Aug 2024 → 23 Aug 2024

Publication series

Name	Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation
ISSN (Print)	2522-8714
ISSN (Electronic)	2522-8722

Conference

Conference	1st International Conference on Advances in Aerospace and Navigation Systems 2024
Abbreviated title	iCAAN 2024
Country/Territory	India
City	Bangalore
Period	22/08/24 → 23/08/24

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy

Keywords

ARMA
BAKO
Earthquake
TEC

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Architecture
Environmental Chemistry
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-031-76937-5_38

Cite this

Kiruthiga, S., Mythili, S., Krishnakumar, A., Mukesh, R., Dass, S. C., Vijay, M., Praveen Kumar, M., & Prashanth, M. (2025). Prediction of TEC During Indonesia Earthquakes Using ARMA Based on GPS Data. In R. Mukesh, D. Venkata Ratnam, P. Theerthamalai, & P. R. Lawrence Raj (Eds.), Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Advances in Aerospace and Navigation Systems. iCAAN 2024 (pp. 321-329). (Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-76937-5_38

Kiruthiga, S. ; Mythili, S. ; Krishnakumar, A. et al. / Prediction of TEC During Indonesia Earthquakes Using ARMA Based on GPS Data. Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Advances in Aerospace and Navigation Systems. iCAAN 2024. editor / R. Mukesh ; D. Venkata Ratnam ; P. Theerthamalai ; Prince Raj Lawrence Raj. Springer, 2025. pp. 321-329 (Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation).

@inproceedings{5c6dfc6f64c04fe49a57d0b94725464b,

title = "Prediction of TEC During Indonesia Earthquakes Using ARMA Based on GPS Data",

abstract = "Earthquake prediction remains a challenging scientific endeavor due to its complex nature and potentially devastating consequences. This study explores the possibility of using fluctuations in Total Electron Content (TEC) within the ionosphere as potential indicators of impending seismic activity. By analyzing data gathered from the BAKO station, an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model was utilized to anticipate TEC values preceding two significant earthquakes, one in Papua, Indonesia, occurring on February 5, 2004, and another in Western New Guinea on April 6, 2013. Evaluation of the predictive accuracy involves metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Normalized RMSE (NRMSE). The findings suggest promise in the ARMA model{\textquoteright}s ability to capture TEC variations associated with seismic events, discrepancies between predicted and actual TEC values are evident. This study offers valuable insights into the potential utility of TEC anomalies as precursors to earthquakes, underscoring the necessity for further research to refine prediction capabilities in this domain.",

keywords = "ARMA, BAKO, Earthquake, TEC",

author = "S. Kiruthiga and S. Mythili and A. Krishnakumar and R. Mukesh and Dass, \{Sarat C.\} and M. Vijay and \{Praveen Kumar\}, M. and M. Prashanth",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2025.; 1st International Conference on Advances in Aerospace and Navigation Systems 2024, iCAAN 2024 ; Conference date: 22-08-2024 Through 23-08-2024",

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Kiruthiga, S, Mythili, S, Krishnakumar, A, Mukesh, R, Dass, SC, Vijay, M, Praveen Kumar, M & Prashanth, M 2025, Prediction of TEC During Indonesia Earthquakes Using ARMA Based on GPS Data. in R Mukesh, D Venkata Ratnam, P Theerthamalai & PR Lawrence Raj (eds), Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Advances in Aerospace and Navigation Systems. iCAAN 2024. Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation, Springer, pp. 321-329, 1st International Conference on Advances in Aerospace and Navigation Systems 2024, Bangalore, India, 22/08/24. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-76937-5_38

Prediction of TEC During Indonesia Earthquakes Using ARMA Based on GPS Data. / Kiruthiga, S.; Mythili, S.; Krishnakumar, A. et al.
Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Advances in Aerospace and Navigation Systems. iCAAN 2024. ed. / R. Mukesh; D. Venkata Ratnam; P. Theerthamalai; Prince Raj Lawrence Raj. Springer, 2025. p. 321-329 (Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution

TY - GEN

T1 - Prediction of TEC During Indonesia Earthquakes Using ARMA Based on GPS Data

AU - Kiruthiga, S.

AU - Mythili, S.

AU - Krishnakumar, A.

AU - Mukesh, R.

AU - Dass, Sarat C.

AU - Vijay, M.

AU - Praveen Kumar, M.

AU - Prashanth, M.

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2025.

PY - 2025/5/21

Y1 - 2025/5/21

N2 - Earthquake prediction remains a challenging scientific endeavor due to its complex nature and potentially devastating consequences. This study explores the possibility of using fluctuations in Total Electron Content (TEC) within the ionosphere as potential indicators of impending seismic activity. By analyzing data gathered from the BAKO station, an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model was utilized to anticipate TEC values preceding two significant earthquakes, one in Papua, Indonesia, occurring on February 5, 2004, and another in Western New Guinea on April 6, 2013. Evaluation of the predictive accuracy involves metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Normalized RMSE (NRMSE). The findings suggest promise in the ARMA model’s ability to capture TEC variations associated with seismic events, discrepancies between predicted and actual TEC values are evident. This study offers valuable insights into the potential utility of TEC anomalies as precursors to earthquakes, underscoring the necessity for further research to refine prediction capabilities in this domain.

AB - Earthquake prediction remains a challenging scientific endeavor due to its complex nature and potentially devastating consequences. This study explores the possibility of using fluctuations in Total Electron Content (TEC) within the ionosphere as potential indicators of impending seismic activity. By analyzing data gathered from the BAKO station, an Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model was utilized to anticipate TEC values preceding two significant earthquakes, one in Papua, Indonesia, occurring on February 5, 2004, and another in Western New Guinea on April 6, 2013. Evaluation of the predictive accuracy involves metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and Normalized RMSE (NRMSE). The findings suggest promise in the ARMA model’s ability to capture TEC variations associated with seismic events, discrepancies between predicted and actual TEC values are evident. This study offers valuable insights into the potential utility of TEC anomalies as precursors to earthquakes, underscoring the necessity for further research to refine prediction capabilities in this domain.

KW - ARMA

KW - BAKO

KW - Earthquake

KW - TEC

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105006740993

U2 - 10.1007/978-3-031-76937-5_38

DO - 10.1007/978-3-031-76937-5_38

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:105006740993

SN - 9783031769368

T3 - Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation

SP - 321

EP - 329

BT - Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Advances in Aerospace and Navigation Systems. iCAAN 2024

A2 - Mukesh, R.

A2 - Venkata Ratnam, D.

A2 - Theerthamalai, P.

A2 - Lawrence Raj, Prince Raj

PB - Springer

T2 - 1st International Conference on Advances in Aerospace and Navigation Systems 2024

Y2 - 22 August 2024 through 23 August 2024

ER -

Kiruthiga S, Mythili S, Krishnakumar A, Mukesh R, Dass SC, Vijay M et al. Prediction of TEC During Indonesia Earthquakes Using ARMA Based on GPS Data. In Mukesh R, Venkata Ratnam D, Theerthamalai P, Lawrence Raj PR, editors, Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Advances in Aerospace and Navigation Systems. iCAAN 2024. Springer. 2025. p. 321-329. (Advances in Science, Technology and Innovation). doi: 10.1007/978-3-031-76937-5_38

Prediction of TEC During Indonesia Earthquakes Using ARMA Based on GPS Data

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

UN SDGs

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Access to Document

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