Prediction of Range Error and Correction in Single Frequency Navigational Receivers Based on GPS Satellite Data During Solar Flare Days

The geomagnetic storms and solar flares are a threat to the Global Navigation Satellite Systems, especially GPS. Investigation of prediction ability of Ordinary Kriging built Meta-Model (OKMM) and the consequence on the positional accuracy of GPS throughout the Solar Fare (SF) X1.3 and X1, which occurred on 28-10-2021and 30-03-2022 was done in this work. GPS TEC data is obtained from the HYDE (Hyderabad) IGS station. GPS TEC data is predicted for ten days, including five days before and five days after the SF using four primary input parameters namely Kp, SSN, Ap and F10.7. The performance of the OKMM is assessed using statistical parameters such as RMSE, NRMSE and Correlation Coefficient (CC). The results show that the developed model has average performance metrics of 7.12, 0.1613, and 0.9852 TECU in terms of RMSE, NRMSE & CC during the X 1.3 SF and the model has average performance metrics of 5.82, 0.2339 and 0.9559 TECU in terms of RMSE, NRMSE & CC during the X 1 SF. The range error during the SF times ranges from 3-10 m. In this range, the OKMM prediction is estimated to have a very high percentile of accuracy in predicting this error.