Abstract
We report on improved phase-space prediction of chaotic time series. We propose a new neighbour-searching strategy which corrects phase-space distortion arising from noise, finite sampling time and limited data length. We further establish a robust fitting algorithm which combines phase-space transformation, weighted regression and singular value decomposition least squares to construct a local linear prediction function. The scaling laws of prediction error in the presence of noise with various parameters are discussed. The method provides a practical iterated prediction approach with relatively high prediction performance. The prediction algorithm is tested on maps (Logistic, Hénon and Ikeda), finite flows (Rössler and Lorenz) and a laser experimental time series, and is shown to give a prediction time up to or longer than five times the Lyapunov time. The improved algorithm also gives a reliable prediction when using only a short training set and in the presence of small noise.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 219-236 |
Number of pages | 18 |
Journal | Dynamics and Stability of Systems |
Volume | 13 |
Issue number | 3 |
Publication status | Published - 1998 |