Parameter estimation for nonlinear disease dynamical system using particle filter

M. Javvad Ur Rehman, Sarat Chandra Dass, Vijanth Sagayan Asirvadam, Ahmed Adly

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

We address the issue of parameter estimation for nonlinear dynamical systems obtained as a model for dengue disease incidence. A Bayesian framework of estimation is adopted. Parameter estimation is performed using a Metropolis Hastings algorithm in which the target distribution of the resulting Markov chain equals the posterior distribution of unknown parameters. Intermediate predictive and filtering density evaluations required, within each Metropolis-Hastings step are evaluated using the particle filters (PF). The methodology is used to estimate unknown parameters governing the evolution of an underlying state space representing the dynamics of the force of infection. We illustrate our estimation methodology on dengue incidences collected from 2009 - 2014 for the district of Gombak in Selangor, Malaysia.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2015 International Conference on Computer, Control, Informatics and its Applications (IC3INA)
EditorsArnida L. Latifah
PublisherIEEE
Pages143-147
Number of pages5
ISBN (Electronic)9781479987733
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 11 Jan 2016
Event2015 International Conference on Computer, Control, Informatics and its Applications - Bandung, Indonesia
Duration: 5 Oct 20157 Oct 2015

Conference

Conference2015 International Conference on Computer, Control, Informatics and its Applications
Abbreviated titleIC3INA 2015
CountryIndonesia
CityBandung
Period5/10/157/10/15

Keywords

  • Dynamical System
  • Parameter Estimation
  • Particle Filter

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Computer Networks and Communications
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Information Systems
  • Control and Systems Engineering

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  • Cite this

    Ur Rehman, M. J., Dass, S. C., Asirvadam, V. S., & Adly, A. (2016). Parameter estimation for nonlinear disease dynamical system using particle filter. In A. L. Latifah (Ed.), 2015 International Conference on Computer, Control, Informatics and its Applications (IC3INA) (pp. 143-147). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/IC3INA.2015.7377762