Operational tools to help stakeholders to protect and alert municipalities facing uncertainties and changes in karst flash floods

Valerie Borrell-Estupina, F. Raynaud, N. Bourgeois, Line Kong-A-Siou, Lila Collet, E. Haziza, Eric Servat

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Abstract

Flash floods are often responsible for many deaths and involve many material damages. Regarding Mediterranean karst aquifers, the complexity of connections, between surface and groundwater, as well as weather non-stationarity patterns, increase difficulties in understanding the basins behaviour and thus warning and protecting people. Furthermore, given the recent changes in land use and extreme rainfall events, knowledge of the past floods is no longer sufficient to manage flood risks. Therefore the worst realistic flood that could occur should be considered.
Physical and processes-based hydrological models are considered among the best ways to forecast floods under diverse conditions. However, they rarely match with the stakeholders’ needs. In fact, the forecasting services, the municipalities, and the civil security have difficulties in running and interpreting data-consuming models in real-time, above all if data are uncertain or non-existent. To face these social and technical difficulties and help stakeholders, this study develops two operational tools derived from these models. These tools aim at planning real-time decisions given little, changing, and uncertain information available, which are: (i) a hydrological graphical tool (abacus) to estimate flood peak discharge from the karst past state and the forecasted but uncertain intense rainfall; (ii) a GIS-based method (MARE) to estimate the potential flooded pathways and areas, accounting for runoff and karst contributions and considering land use changes. Then, outputs of these tools are confronted to past and recent floods and municipalities observations, and the impacts of uncertainties and changes on planning decisions are discussed. The use of these tools on the recent 2014 events demonstrated their
reliability and interest for stakeholders.
This study was realized on French Mediterranean basins, in close collaboration with the Flood Forecasting Services (SPC Med-Ouest, SCHAPI, municipalities).
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationHS01 Changes in Flood Risk and Perception in Catchments and Cities
PublisherIAHS Press
Pages201-208
Number of pages8
Volume370
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015

Publication series

NameProceedings of the IAHS
Volume370

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    Borrell-Estupina, V., Raynaud, F., Bourgeois, N., Kong-A-Siou, L., Collet, L., Haziza, E., & Servat, E. (2015). Operational tools to help stakeholders to protect and alert municipalities facing uncertainties and changes in karst flash floods. In HS01 Changes in Flood Risk and Perception in Catchments and Cities (Vol. 370, pp. 201-208). (Proceedings of the IAHS; Vol. 370). IAHS Press. https://doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-201-2015