On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

Joseph Paul Byrne, Dimitris Korobilis, Pinho J. Ribeiro

Research output: Working paperDiscussion paper

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Abstract

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden, rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using an innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.
Original languageEnglish
PublisherAdam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow
Number of pages77
Publication statusPublished - 29 Sep 2014

Publication series

NameEconomics Working Papers
No.2014_16

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