Offshore Wind and the Spatial Squeeze: A Plausible Future Layout for the North Sea

All of the nations surrounding the North Sea have targets for very large scale offshore wind deployment, and this may have significant implications for oceanography, ecology, and other sea users. Studying these implications is not possible without a plausible scenario for where the wind farms and wind turbines will be located. In this work we produce such a scenario by asking “If all the national ambitions were built, what might the North Sea look like in 2050?” We collate stated national targets and propose a plausible future layout for offshore wind farms. Taking predicted future turbine designs into account, as well as the different wind farm densities planned by each country, we then present a dataset of plausible turbine locations. Our layouts are available as open data for further modelling or analysis. If all national ambitions are fulfilled in 2050, we expect over 19,400 turbines, forming wind farms whose boundaries include approx. 11% of the area of the North Sea. This is very likely to have significant impacts on other sea users, especially fishers, and may have significant oceanographic and ecological effects as well. It will be important for these effects to be studied further, and for policymakers to consider them alongside the benefits of offshore wind expansion.