No Consistent Simulated Trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the Past 6,000 Years

Zhiyi Jiang*, Chris M. Brierley, Jürgen Bader, Pascale Braconnot, Michael Erb, Peter O. Hopcroft, Dabang Jiang, Johann Jungclaus, Vyacheslav Khon, Gerrit Lohmann, Olivier Marti, Matthew B. Osman, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Birgit Schneider, Xiaoxu Shi, David J. R. Thornalley, Zhiping Tian, Qiong Zhang

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalLetterpeer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)
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The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key feature of the North Atlantic with global ocean impacts. The AMOC's response to past changes in forcings during the Holocene provides important context for the coming centuries. Here, we investigate AMOC trends using an emerging set of transient simulations using multiple global climate models for the past 6,000 years. Although some models show changes, no consistent trend in overall AMOC strength during the mid-to-late Holocene emerges from the ensemble. We interpret this result to suggest no overall change in AMOC, which fits with our assessment of available proxy reconstructions. The decadal variability of the AMOC does not change in ensemble during the mid- and late-Holocene. There are interesting AMOC changes seen in the early Holocene, but their nature depends a lot on which inputs are used to drive the experiment.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2023GL103078
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Issue number10
Early online date11 May 2023
Publication statusPublished - 28 May 2023


  • AMOC
  • Holocene

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geophysics
  • General Earth and Planetary Sciences


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