No Consistent Simulated Trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the Past 6,000 Years

Zhiyi Jiang; Chris M. Brierley; Jürgen Bader; Pascale Braconnot; Michael Erb; Peter O. Hopcroft; Dabang Jiang; Johann Jungclaus; Vyacheslav Khon; Gerrit Lohmann; Olivier Marti; Matthew B. Osman; Bette Otto-Bliesner; Birgit Schneider; Xiaoxu Shi; David J. R. Thornalley; Zhiping Tian; Qiong Zhang

doi:10.1029/2023GL103078

No Consistent Simulated Trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the Past 6,000 Years

Zhiyi Jiang^*, Chris M. Brierley, Jürgen Bader, Pascale Braconnot, Michael Erb, Peter O. Hopcroft, Dabang Jiang, Johann Jungclaus, Vyacheslav Khon, Gerrit Lohmann, Olivier Marti, Matthew B. Osman, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Birgit Schneider, Xiaoxu Shi, David J. R. Thornalley, Zhiping Tian, Qiong Zhang

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Letter › peer-review

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Abstract

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key feature of the North Atlantic with global ocean impacts. The AMOC's response to past changes in forcings during the Holocene provides important context for the coming centuries. Here, we investigate AMOC trends using an emerging set of transient simulations using multiple global climate models for the past 6,000 years. Although some models show changes, no consistent trend in overall AMOC strength during the mid-to-late Holocene emerges from the ensemble. We interpret this result to suggest no overall change in AMOC, which fits with our assessment of available proxy reconstructions. The decadal variability of the AMOC does not change in ensemble during the mid- and late-Holocene. There are interesting AMOC changes seen in the early Holocene, but their nature depends a lot on which inputs are used to drive the experiment.

Original language	English
Article number	e2023GL103078
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	50
Issue number	10
Early online date	11 May 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103078
Publication status	Published - 28 May 2023

Keywords

AMOC
Holocene

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Geophysics
General Earth and Planetary Sciences

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Cite this

Jiang, Z., Brierley, C. M., Bader, J., Braconnot, P., Erb, M., Hopcroft, P. O., Jiang, D., Jungclaus, J., Khon, V., Lohmann, G., Marti, O., Osman, M. B., Otto-Bliesner, B., Schneider, B., Shi, X., Thornalley, D. J. R., Tian, Z., & Zhang, Q. (2023). No Consistent Simulated Trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the Past 6,000 Years. Geophysical Research Letters, 50(10), Article e2023GL103078. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103078

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title = "No Consistent Simulated Trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the Past 6,000 Years",

abstract = "The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key feature of the North Atlantic with global ocean impacts. The AMOC's response to past changes in forcings during the Holocene provides important context for the coming centuries. Here, we investigate AMOC trends using an emerging set of transient simulations using multiple global climate models for the past 6,000 years. Although some models show changes, no consistent trend in overall AMOC strength during the mid-to-late Holocene emerges from the ensemble. We interpret this result to suggest no overall change in AMOC, which fits with our assessment of available proxy reconstructions. The decadal variability of the AMOC does not change in ensemble during the mid- and late-Holocene. There are interesting AMOC changes seen in the early Holocene, but their nature depends a lot on which inputs are used to drive the experiment.",

keywords = "AMOC, Holocene",

author = "Zhiyi Jiang and Brierley, {Chris M.} and J{\"u}rgen Bader and Pascale Braconnot and Michael Erb and Hopcroft, {Peter O.} and Dabang Jiang and Johann Jungclaus and Vyacheslav Khon and Gerrit Lohmann and Olivier Marti and Osman, {Matthew B.} and Bette Otto-Bliesner and Birgit Schneider and Xiaoxu Shi and Thornalley, {David J. R.} and Zhiping Tian and Qiong Zhang",

note = "Funding Information: We would like to thank all the modeling groups who performed the transient simulations and generously made the simulations output freely available. This research has been supported by the UK's Natural Environment Research Council (Grant NE/S009736/1), the German Federal Ministry of Education and Science (BMBF; 01LP1607A, 01LP1607B, 01LP1609A, and 01LP1924B), the German Research Foundation (SFB754, SCHN 762/3‐1, and FO EXC 80/1), the US National Science Foundation (AGS‐1903548, AGS‐1602223, and Cooperative Agreement 1852977) and ESC/JAMSTEC computing facilities, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42075048), the Swedish Vetenskapsr{\aa}det (2013‐06476, 2017‐04232), European Union's Horizon 2020 (820970), and the French Agence National de Recerche (ANR‐15‐JCLI‐0003‐01). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023. The Authors.",

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month = may,

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doi = "10.1029/2023GL103078",

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Jiang, Z, Brierley, CM, Bader, J, Braconnot, P, Erb, M, Hopcroft, PO, Jiang, D, Jungclaus, J, Khon, V, Lohmann, G, Marti, O, Osman, MB, Otto-Bliesner, B, Schneider, B, Shi, X, Thornalley, DJR, Tian, Z & Zhang, Q 2023, 'No Consistent Simulated Trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the Past 6,000 Years', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 50, no. 10, e2023GL103078. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103078

TY - JOUR

T1 - No Consistent Simulated Trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the Past 6,000 Years

AU - Jiang, Zhiyi

AU - Brierley, Chris M.

AU - Bader, Jürgen

AU - Braconnot, Pascale

AU - Erb, Michael

AU - Hopcroft, Peter O.

AU - Jiang, Dabang

AU - Jungclaus, Johann

AU - Khon, Vyacheslav

AU - Lohmann, Gerrit

AU - Marti, Olivier

AU - Osman, Matthew B.

AU - Otto-Bliesner, Bette

AU - Schneider, Birgit

AU - Shi, Xiaoxu

AU - Thornalley, David J. R.

AU - Tian, Zhiping

AU - Zhang, Qiong

N1 - Funding Information: We would like to thank all the modeling groups who performed the transient simulations and generously made the simulations output freely available. This research has been supported by the UK's Natural Environment Research Council (Grant NE/S009736/1), the German Federal Ministry of Education and Science (BMBF; 01LP1607A, 01LP1607B, 01LP1609A, and 01LP1924B), the German Research Foundation (SFB754, SCHN 762/3‐1, and FO EXC 80/1), the US National Science Foundation (AGS‐1903548, AGS‐1602223, and Cooperative Agreement 1852977) and ESC/JAMSTEC computing facilities, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42075048), the Swedish Vetenskapsrådet (2013‐06476, 2017‐04232), European Union's Horizon 2020 (820970), and the French Agence National de Recerche (ANR‐15‐JCLI‐0003‐01). Publisher Copyright: © 2023. The Authors.

PY - 2023/5/28

Y1 - 2023/5/28

N2 - The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key feature of the North Atlantic with global ocean impacts. The AMOC's response to past changes in forcings during the Holocene provides important context for the coming centuries. Here, we investigate AMOC trends using an emerging set of transient simulations using multiple global climate models for the past 6,000 years. Although some models show changes, no consistent trend in overall AMOC strength during the mid-to-late Holocene emerges from the ensemble. We interpret this result to suggest no overall change in AMOC, which fits with our assessment of available proxy reconstructions. The decadal variability of the AMOC does not change in ensemble during the mid- and late-Holocene. There are interesting AMOC changes seen in the early Holocene, but their nature depends a lot on which inputs are used to drive the experiment.

AB - The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key feature of the North Atlantic with global ocean impacts. The AMOC's response to past changes in forcings during the Holocene provides important context for the coming centuries. Here, we investigate AMOC trends using an emerging set of transient simulations using multiple global climate models for the past 6,000 years. Although some models show changes, no consistent trend in overall AMOC strength during the mid-to-late Holocene emerges from the ensemble. We interpret this result to suggest no overall change in AMOC, which fits with our assessment of available proxy reconstructions. The decadal variability of the AMOC does not change in ensemble during the mid- and late-Holocene. There are interesting AMOC changes seen in the early Holocene, but their nature depends a lot on which inputs are used to drive the experiment.

KW - AMOC

KW - Holocene

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U2 - 10.1029/2023GL103078

DO - 10.1029/2023GL103078

M3 - Letter

AN - SCOPUS:85160418501

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 50

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 10

M1 - e2023GL103078

ER -