TY - JOUR

T1 - Multiple barrier-crossings of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck diffusion in consecutive periods

AU - Jiang, Yupeng

AU - Macrina, Andrea

AU - Peters, Gareth W.

PY - 2020/9/22

Y1 - 2020/9/22

N2 - We investigate the joint distribution and the multivariate survival functions for the maxima of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process in consecutive time-intervals. A PDE method, alongside an eigenfunction expansion is adopted, with which we first calculate the distribution and the survival functions for the maximum of a homogeneous OU-process in a single interval. By a deterministic time-change and a parameter translation, this result can be extended to an inhomogeneous OU-process. Next, we derive a general formula for the joint distribution and the survival functions for the maxima of a continuous Markov process in consecutive periods. With these results, one can obtain semi-analytical expressions for the joint distribution and the multivariate survival functions for the maxima of an OU-process, with piecewise constant parameter functions, in consecutive time periods. The joint distribution and the survival functions can be evaluated numerically by an iterated quadrature scheme, which can be implemented efficiently by matrix multiplications. Moreover, we show that the computation can be further simplified to the product of single quadratures if the filtration is enlarged. Such results may be used for the modeling of heatwaves and related risk management challenges.

AB - We investigate the joint distribution and the multivariate survival functions for the maxima of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process in consecutive time-intervals. A PDE method, alongside an eigenfunction expansion is adopted, with which we first calculate the distribution and the survival functions for the maximum of a homogeneous OU-process in a single interval. By a deterministic time-change and a parameter translation, this result can be extended to an inhomogeneous OU-process. Next, we derive a general formula for the joint distribution and the survival functions for the maxima of a continuous Markov process in consecutive periods. With these results, one can obtain semi-analytical expressions for the joint distribution and the multivariate survival functions for the maxima of an OU-process, with piecewise constant parameter functions, in consecutive time periods. The joint distribution and the survival functions can be evaluated numerically by an iterated quadrature scheme, which can be implemented efficiently by matrix multiplications. Moreover, we show that the computation can be further simplified to the product of single quadratures if the filtration is enlarged. Such results may be used for the modeling of heatwaves and related risk management challenges.

KW - math.PR

U2 - 10.1080/07362994.2020.1818581

DO - 10.1080/07362994.2020.1818581

M3 - Article

SN - 0736-2994

JO - Stochastic Analysis and Applications

JF - Stochastic Analysis and Applications

ER -