Monte Carlo assessment of sampling uncertainty of climate change impacts on water resources yield in Yorkshire, England

N. R. Nawaz, A. J. Adeloye

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    Despite much effort over the last decade, there still remain many uncertainties in the assessed impacts of climate change on water resources. This study has carried out Monte Carlo Simulations to characterise the sampling uncertainties in assessed water resources impacts. The investigation employed data from catchments in northeast England, which incorporate water supply reservoirs. The impacts assessment used scenarios from three GCM experiments: (i) the Canadian first generation coupled model (CGCM1), (ii) the Australian first generation coupled model (CSIRO-mk2b) and (iii) the British third generation model (HadCM3). The results showed that yield impacts are subject to wide variability, irrespective of the GCM experiment, which calls for caution when using mean impacts obtained from single data record analysis for decision making. © 2006 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)257-292
    Number of pages36
    JournalClimatic Change
    Volume78
    Issue number2-4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - Oct 2006

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    water resource
    climate change
    general circulation model
    sampling
    experiment
    water supply
    decision making
    catchment
    simulation
    science
    impact assessment
    analysis

    Cite this

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    abstract = "Despite much effort over the last decade, there still remain many uncertainties in the assessed impacts of climate change on water resources. This study has carried out Monte Carlo Simulations to characterise the sampling uncertainties in assessed water resources impacts. The investigation employed data from catchments in northeast England, which incorporate water supply reservoirs. The impacts assessment used scenarios from three GCM experiments: (i) the Canadian first generation coupled model (CGCM1), (ii) the Australian first generation coupled model (CSIRO-mk2b) and (iii) the British third generation model (HadCM3). The results showed that yield impacts are subject to wide variability, irrespective of the GCM experiment, which calls for caution when using mean impacts obtained from single data record analysis for decision making. {\circledC} 2006 Springer Science+Business Media, Inc.",
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    Monte Carlo assessment of sampling uncertainty of climate change impacts on water resources yield in Yorkshire, England. / Nawaz, N. R.; Adeloye, A. J.

    In: Climatic Change, Vol. 78, No. 2-4, 10.2006, p. 257-292.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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