Modelling local and small-area income distributions in Scotland

Reliable local income data remains a key missing element within British official statistics. The authors discuss the development of a model of local income distributions intended to overcome this problem, particularly in the context of housing-affordability analysis. The model links national surveys (the Family Expenditure Survey and Scottish House Condition Survey) to local data available from census and other sources. Developments to the model are described including: tenure disaggregation, calibration and testing with the aid of micro and other datasets; application down to small-area (postcode-sector) level; updating and projection from census to recent and future dates; and predicting benefit take-up. Discussion of the results highlights some features of recent income patterns and trends in Scotland as well as the value and limitations of the method.