Modelling and Forecasting Energy Demand in Rural Households of Bangladesh

Bangladesh, the eighth largest populous country in the world, has a significant rural population (70%), which is contributing to the energy demand of the country. The major portion in energy demand of rural households is biomass energy. With the improvement in GDP the rural energy demand would switch to more electricity intensive demand pathway. This paper focuses on a bottom up approach towards modelling the aggregated energy demand of rural households of Bangladesh form the year 2010 to 2050. The combination of four level scenarios of four variables (population, GDP electrification index, public energy conservation index) would forecast lowest, highest and optimum energy demand pathways for rural households of Bangladesh. The study not only considers the electricity demand of the rural household, but also it would render the opportunity to concentrate at the detail user end energy demands (e.g. liquid fuel, biomass etc.).