Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

Hans Heesterbeek; Roy M. Anderson; Viggo Andreasen; Shweta Bansal; Daniela DeAngelis; Chris Dye; Ken T D Eames; W. John Edmunds; Simon D W Frost; Sebastian Funk; T. Deirdre Hollingsworth; Thomas House; Valerie Isham; Petra Klepac; Justin Lessler; James O. Lloyd-Smith; C. Jessica E Metcalf; Denis Mollison; Lorenzo Pellis; Juliet R C Pulliam; Mick G. Roberts; Cecile Viboud; Nimalan Arinaminpathy; Frank Ball; Tiffany Bogich; Julia Gog; Bryan Grenfell; Alun L. Lloyd; Angela Mclean; Philip O'Neill; Carl Pearson; Steven Riley; Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba; Pieter Trapman; James Wood

doi:10.1126/science.aaa4339

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

Hans Heesterbeek^*, Roy M. Anderson, Viggo Andreasen, Shweta Bansal, Daniela DeAngelis, Chris Dye, Ken T D Eames, W. John Edmunds, Simon D W Frost, Sebastian Funk, T. Deirdre Hollingsworth, Thomas House, Valerie Isham, Petra Klepac, Justin Lessler, James O. Lloyd-Smith, C. Jessica E Metcalf, Denis Mollison, Lorenzo Pellis, Juliet R C PulliamMick G. Roberts, Cecile Viboud, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Frank Ball, Tiffany Bogich, Julia Gog, Bryan Grenfell, Alun L. Lloyd, Angela Mclean, Philip O'Neill, Carl Pearson, Steven Riley, Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba, Pieter Trapman, James Wood

^*Corresponding author for this work

School of Mathematical & Computer Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

457 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.

Original language	English
Article number	aaa4339
Number of pages	10
Journal	Science
Volume	347
Issue number	6227
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4339
Publication status	Published - 13 Mar 2015

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Heesterbeek, H., Anderson, R. M., Andreasen, V., Bansal, S., DeAngelis, D., Dye, C., Eames, K. T. D., Edmunds, W. J., Frost, S. D. W., Funk, S., Hollingsworth, T. D., House, T., Isham, V., Klepac, P., Lessler, J., Lloyd-Smith, J. O., Metcalf, C. J. E., Mollison, D., Pellis, L., ... Wood, J. (2015). Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health. Science, 347(6227), Article aaa4339. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4339

@article{33231b6f89e54d1ab2accfa2c4c40c8d,

title = "Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health",

abstract = "Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.",

author = "Hans Heesterbeek and Anderson, {Roy M.} and Viggo Andreasen and Shweta Bansal and Daniela DeAngelis and Chris Dye and Eames, {Ken T D} and Edmunds, {W. John} and Frost, {Simon D W} and Sebastian Funk and Hollingsworth, {T. Deirdre} and Thomas House and Valerie Isham and Petra Klepac and Justin Lessler and Lloyd-Smith, {James O.} and Metcalf, {C. Jessica E} and Denis Mollison and Lorenzo Pellis and Pulliam, {Juliet R C} and Roberts, {Mick G.} and Cecile Viboud and Nimalan Arinaminpathy and Frank Ball and Tiffany Bogich and Julia Gog and Bryan Grenfell and Lloyd, {Alun L.} and Angela Mclean and Philip O'Neill and Carl Pearson and Steven Riley and Tomba, {Gianpaolo Scalia} and Pieter Trapman and James Wood",

year = "2015",

month = mar,

day = "13",

doi = "10.1126/science.aaa4339",

language = "English",

volume = "347",

journal = "Science",

issn = "0036-8075",

publisher = "American Association for the Advancement of Science",

number = "6227",

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Heesterbeek, H, Anderson, RM, Andreasen, V, Bansal, S, DeAngelis, D, Dye, C, Eames, KTD, Edmunds, WJ, Frost, SDW, Funk, S, Hollingsworth, TD, House, T, Isham, V, Klepac, P, Lessler, J, Lloyd-Smith, JO, Metcalf, CJE, Mollison, D, Pellis, L, Pulliam, JRC, Roberts, MG, Viboud, C, Arinaminpathy, N, Ball, F, Bogich, T, Gog, J, Grenfell, B, Lloyd, AL, Mclean, A, O'Neill, P, Pearson, C, Riley, S, Tomba, GS, Trapman, P & Wood, J 2015, 'Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health', Science, vol. 347, no. 6227, aaa4339. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4339

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AU - Heesterbeek, Hans

AU - Anderson, Roy M.

AU - Andreasen, Viggo

AU - Bansal, Shweta

AU - DeAngelis, Daniela

AU - Dye, Chris

AU - Eames, Ken T D

AU - Edmunds, W. John

AU - Frost, Simon D W

AU - Funk, Sebastian

AU - Hollingsworth, T. Deirdre

AU - House, Thomas

AU - Isham, Valerie

AU - Klepac, Petra

AU - Lessler, Justin

AU - Lloyd-Smith, James O.

AU - Metcalf, C. Jessica E

AU - Mollison, Denis

AU - Pellis, Lorenzo

AU - Pulliam, Juliet R C

AU - Roberts, Mick G.

AU - Viboud, Cecile

AU - Arinaminpathy, Nimalan

AU - Ball, Frank

AU - Bogich, Tiffany

AU - Gog, Julia

AU - Grenfell, Bryan

AU - Lloyd, Alun L.

AU - Mclean, Angela

AU - O'Neill, Philip

AU - Pearson, Carl

AU - Riley, Steven

AU - Tomba, Gianpaolo Scalia

AU - Trapman, Pieter

AU - Wood, James

PY - 2015/3/13

Y1 - 2015/3/13

N2 - Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.

AB - Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.

U2 - 10.1126/science.aaa4339

DO - 10.1126/science.aaa4339

M3 - Article

C2 - 25766240

AN - SCOPUS:84924787757

SN - 0036-8075

VL - 347

JO - Science

JF - Science

IS - 6227

M1 - aaa4339

ER -

Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

Abstract

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