Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

Hans Heesterbeek, Roy M. Anderson, Viggo Andreasen, Shweta Bansal, Daniela DeAngelis, Chris Dye, Ken T D Eames, W. John Edmunds, Simon D W Frost, Sebastian Funk, T. Deirdre Hollingsworth, Thomas House, Valerie Isham, Petra Klepac, Justin Lessler, James O. Lloyd-Smith, C. Jessica E Metcalf, Denis Mollison, Lorenzo Pellis, Juliet R C PulliamMick G. Roberts, Cecile Viboud, Nimalan Arinaminpathy, Frank Ball, Tiffany Bogich, Julia Gog, Bryan Grenfell, Alun L. Lloyd, Angela Mclean, Philip O'Neill, Carl Pearson, Steven Riley, Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba, Pieter Trapman, James Wood

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

196 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.

Original languageEnglish
Article numberaaa4339
Number of pages10
JournalScience
Volume347
Issue number6227
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 13 Mar 2015

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    Heesterbeek, H., Anderson, R. M., Andreasen, V., Bansal, S., DeAngelis, D., Dye, C., Eames, K. T. D., Edmunds, W. J., Frost, S. D. W., Funk, S., Hollingsworth, T. D., House, T., Isham, V., Klepac, P., Lessler, J., Lloyd-Smith, J. O., Metcalf, C. J. E., Mollison, D., Pellis, L., ... Wood, J. (2015). Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health. Science, 347(6227), [aaa4339]. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aaa4339