Methods for predicting future energy demands to assess energy system resilience

This study overviews the preliminary energy demand work of the Adaptation and Resilience in Energy Systems (ARIES) project. A technique is proposed that uses a combination of real domestic electrical demands and synthesised profiles to construct a multi-building electrical profile that accounts for household diversity in energy use. This can then be used as a foundation for applying new technologies and future climate scenarios to individual demand profiles, and subsequently estimate the effect this will have on larger scale demand profiles (for larger sections of the building stock). The paper focuses on domestic electrical demands, but work is planned for the non-domestic sector and also incorporating thermal demands (and gas usage).