Method for Incorporating Morphological Sensitivity into Flood Inundation Modeling

Douglas Pender, Sandhya Patidar, Gareth Pender, Heather Haynes

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Typically, the analysis and design of fluvial flood defence schemes is based on a single N year extreme flow event using a single survey of the river channel and flood plains. Adopting this approach assumes that the channel capacity is identical for all subsequent N year events. If one assumes that the typical design life for a flood defence scheme is of the order of 50 years, then such an approach is flawed because river channel morphology, and hence flood conveyance, may change considerably over this time scale. Therefore, to provide a more robust estimate of future flood inundation, a sensitivity analysis of these changes should be undertaken. This paper proposes a modeling methodology that combines a stochastic model, for estimating streamflow throughout the design period, and a 1D sediment transport model (HEC-RAS), to enable this sensitivity to be included in flood inundation modeling and defence scheme design. The methodology is demonstrated through conceptual implementation to evaluate the change in water surface elevation (WSE) along an alluvial river (River Caldew, England) reach after 50 years of sediment transport. Changes in WSE are assessed when the reach is natural (no flood defences) and modified (with idealized flood defences). Results show that the construction of the flood defence scheme does not alter the overall morphological pattern of the reach but can significantly increase (260%) local aggradation. Additionally, 50 years of morphological change have the potential to increase WSE such that high flows, previously confined within the channel, can overtop the banks and become flood events; and that, the standard freeboard levels of the flood defence scheme may be insufficient to prevent overtopping when morphological change is considered. The method can be considered as a semiquantitative modeling methodology to account for the sediment-related sensitivity of flood risk management; and provides valuable insights into the potential magnitude that this has on future flood inundation.
Original languageEnglish
Article number04016008
Number of pages11
JournalJournal of Hydraulic Engineering
Volume142
Issue number6
Early online date26 Feb 2016
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2016

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modeling
river channel
surface water
method
sediment transport
methodology
overtopping
channel morphology
aggradation
defence
river
sensitivity analysis
streamflow
timescale
sediment

Cite this

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title = "Method for Incorporating Morphological Sensitivity into Flood Inundation Modeling",
abstract = "Typically, the analysis and design of fluvial flood defence schemes is based on a single N year extreme flow event using a single survey of the river channel and flood plains. Adopting this approach assumes that the channel capacity is identical for all subsequent N year events. If one assumes that the typical design life for a flood defence scheme is of the order of 50 years, then such an approach is flawed because river channel morphology, and hence flood conveyance, may change considerably over this time scale. Therefore, to provide a more robust estimate of future flood inundation, a sensitivity analysis of these changes should be undertaken. This paper proposes a modeling methodology that combines a stochastic model, for estimating streamflow throughout the design period, and a 1D sediment transport model (HEC-RAS), to enable this sensitivity to be included in flood inundation modeling and defence scheme design. The methodology is demonstrated through conceptual implementation to evaluate the change in water surface elevation (WSE) along an alluvial river (River Caldew, England) reach after 50 years of sediment transport. Changes in WSE are assessed when the reach is natural (no flood defences) and modified (with idealized flood defences). Results show that the construction of the flood defence scheme does not alter the overall morphological pattern of the reach but can significantly increase (260{\%}) local aggradation. Additionally, 50 years of morphological change have the potential to increase WSE such that high flows, previously confined within the channel, can overtop the banks and become flood events; and that, the standard freeboard levels of the flood defence scheme may be insufficient to prevent overtopping when morphological change is considered. The method can be considered as a semiquantitative modeling methodology to account for the sediment-related sensitivity of flood risk management; and provides valuable insights into the potential magnitude that this has on future flood inundation.",
author = "Douglas Pender and Sandhya Patidar and Gareth Pender and Heather Haynes",
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Method for Incorporating Morphological Sensitivity into Flood Inundation Modeling. / Pender, Douglas; Patidar, Sandhya; Pender, Gareth; Haynes, Heather.

In: Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, Vol. 142, No. 6, 04016008, 06.2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

TY - JOUR

T1 - Method for Incorporating Morphological Sensitivity into Flood Inundation Modeling

AU - Pender, Douglas

AU - Patidar, Sandhya

AU - Pender, Gareth

AU - Haynes, Heather

N1 - This research was funded by an EPSRC (EP/K013513/1) grant held by Dr. Heather Haynes (fourth author). Open access data underpinning Figures may be available via written request to the University.

PY - 2016/6

Y1 - 2016/6

N2 - Typically, the analysis and design of fluvial flood defence schemes is based on a single N year extreme flow event using a single survey of the river channel and flood plains. Adopting this approach assumes that the channel capacity is identical for all subsequent N year events. If one assumes that the typical design life for a flood defence scheme is of the order of 50 years, then such an approach is flawed because river channel morphology, and hence flood conveyance, may change considerably over this time scale. Therefore, to provide a more robust estimate of future flood inundation, a sensitivity analysis of these changes should be undertaken. This paper proposes a modeling methodology that combines a stochastic model, for estimating streamflow throughout the design period, and a 1D sediment transport model (HEC-RAS), to enable this sensitivity to be included in flood inundation modeling and defence scheme design. The methodology is demonstrated through conceptual implementation to evaluate the change in water surface elevation (WSE) along an alluvial river (River Caldew, England) reach after 50 years of sediment transport. Changes in WSE are assessed when the reach is natural (no flood defences) and modified (with idealized flood defences). Results show that the construction of the flood defence scheme does not alter the overall morphological pattern of the reach but can significantly increase (260%) local aggradation. Additionally, 50 years of morphological change have the potential to increase WSE such that high flows, previously confined within the channel, can overtop the banks and become flood events; and that, the standard freeboard levels of the flood defence scheme may be insufficient to prevent overtopping when morphological change is considered. The method can be considered as a semiquantitative modeling methodology to account for the sediment-related sensitivity of flood risk management; and provides valuable insights into the potential magnitude that this has on future flood inundation.

AB - Typically, the analysis and design of fluvial flood defence schemes is based on a single N year extreme flow event using a single survey of the river channel and flood plains. Adopting this approach assumes that the channel capacity is identical for all subsequent N year events. If one assumes that the typical design life for a flood defence scheme is of the order of 50 years, then such an approach is flawed because river channel morphology, and hence flood conveyance, may change considerably over this time scale. Therefore, to provide a more robust estimate of future flood inundation, a sensitivity analysis of these changes should be undertaken. This paper proposes a modeling methodology that combines a stochastic model, for estimating streamflow throughout the design period, and a 1D sediment transport model (HEC-RAS), to enable this sensitivity to be included in flood inundation modeling and defence scheme design. The methodology is demonstrated through conceptual implementation to evaluate the change in water surface elevation (WSE) along an alluvial river (River Caldew, England) reach after 50 years of sediment transport. Changes in WSE are assessed when the reach is natural (no flood defences) and modified (with idealized flood defences). Results show that the construction of the flood defence scheme does not alter the overall morphological pattern of the reach but can significantly increase (260%) local aggradation. Additionally, 50 years of morphological change have the potential to increase WSE such that high flows, previously confined within the channel, can overtop the banks and become flood events; and that, the standard freeboard levels of the flood defence scheme may be insufficient to prevent overtopping when morphological change is considered. The method can be considered as a semiquantitative modeling methodology to account for the sediment-related sensitivity of flood risk management; and provides valuable insights into the potential magnitude that this has on future flood inundation.

U2 - 10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001127

DO - 10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943-7900.0001127

M3 - Article

VL - 142

JO - Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

JF - Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

SN - 0733-9429

IS - 6

M1 - 04016008

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