Climate change is affecting crop yields and disrupting the global food system. Oil palm is one of the important vegetable oil crops and is widely cultivated in the tropical belt. Accounting the climate change effects while forecasting the oil palm yield is critical in building a resilient palm supply chain and ensuring food security. Though the productivity of oil palm plantations depends on various agroclimatic conditions and agronomic practices, the palm age, rainfall, and temperature are critical variables determining the yield. However, most works have failed to account for the age of palms. This work aims to account for the age of palms and also the impact of changing rainfall patterns and rise in temperature in forecasting the yield. A simple but robust mathematical approach is proposed to forecast yield at plantation level by accounting for the above-mentioned factors. An illustrative case study is solved to demonstrate the model. The results show that climate change effects results in 33.31 % - 8.18 % reduction in FFB yield. The proposed model allows effective planning and management of activities at plantations and can offset the impact of fresh fruit bunch yield uncertainties due to climate change effects on the downstream units of the palm supply chain.
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Chemical Engineering(all)