Low-Carbon Energy Transition for the Sarawak Region Via Multi-Period Carbon Emission Pinch Analysis

The Paris agreement in 2015 has required that countries commit to global carbon emission reduction by setting their national targets. In most countries, the electricity sector is identified as one of the major contributors to carbon emissions. Therefore, the governments count on decarbonizing the electricity sector to achieve their carbon reduction targets. However, this could be challenging as it is complex and involves multi-stakeholders in implementing the decarbonization plan. This work presents a mathematical optimization model to determine multi-period electricity generation planning to achieve the electricity demand and the carbon reduction target. A multi-period analysis allows long-term planning for decarbonizing the electricity sector by the gradual phasing out of coal-based power plants and the introduction of renewable-based electricity generation. To illustrate the proposed approach, the developed model is solved to strategize low-carbon energy transition planning for the Sarawak region in Malaysia. The model determines the optimal amount of new renewables required during each of the time periods, from 2020–2040, to meet the carbon reduction target. The optimal results are generated under two scenarios—no co-firing and co-firing. The generated results show that the co-firing scenario resulted in a 14.09% reduction in new renewable additions and a 5.78% reduction in the total costs. The results also determined a 66% reduction in coal consumption in 2050 when compared to the base year in 2020.