Longitudinal analysis shows possible distinct patterns of associations between conspiracy beliefs and either institutional distrust or the sense of precarity

The paper reports longitudinal analyses examining the extent to which institutional trust mediates the relationship between individuals' sense of precarity and their adherence to conspiracy beliefs. Across three waves, 925 participants (50.2% female) between the ages of 18 and 85 (M = 49.53; SD = 15.81) reported subjective appraisals of their financial situation (precarity), trust in institutions and adherence to conspiracy beliefs. The current study extends the previous analyses by including three-wave longitudinal data. The preregistered autoregressive cross-lagged panel model supports the notion that a sense of precarity follows adherence to conspiracy beliefs rather than preceding them, while institutional (dis)trust and conspiracy beliefs show a bidirectional pattern. However, the random-intercept cross-lagged panel model does not corroborate this, suggesting that the effects may be driven by stable between-person differences rather than actual within-person changes. Additionally, the latter model reveals two separate temporal patterns linking conspiracy beliefs with either the sense of precarity or institutional trust, opening the possibility that our results were driven by two distinct underlying mechanisms. The paper discusses the importance of longitudinal studies for a more accurate understanding of social-psychological realities in which conspiracy beliefs and suspicions of institutions may flourish.