Land Use/Cover Dynamics and Associated Impacts on Eutrophication, Land Surface Temperature, and Ecosystem Service Values: An Eco-Climatological Investigation of Chilika Lake, India

Chilika Lake, the largest lagoon in Asia, located in Odisha, India, has been subjected to substantial anthropogenic pressures over the past 30 years, necessitating a comprehensive examination of its evolving landscape. Employing Landsat data spanning from 1991 to 2021, our research focuses on meticulous Land use/Land cover (LULC) classification, revealing an alarming 11.7% reduction in the lake area in the last 30 years. This decline is attributed to the conversion of vital mangrove and wetland areas into urban and agricultural expenses. The consequences extend to a 9.3% reduction in plant cover and a 7.8% decrease in catchment area. Notably, visible eutrophication patches and escalating nutrient concentrations in the past decade underscore the lake's vulnerability to environmental stressors. In parallel, the study integrates key indicators such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Land Surface Temperature (LST), revealing a significant 4°C increase in surface temperature from 1991 to 2021. A forward-looking CA-Markov model forecasts a continued reduction in the lake's area until 2026, coupled with an expansion of urban and agricultural domains. While the pandemic-induced restrictions temporarily improved lake levels in 2021, our overarching findings underscore the urgent need for strategic interventions to safeguard this vital natural resource. This research contributes valuable insights into the ongoing transition and future trajectory of Chilika Lake's landscape, offering a nuanced understanding for stakeholders and policymakers to formulate evidence-based strategies for the preservation and sustainable management of this ecologically significant ecosystem.