Land-use carbon emissions and built environment characteristics: A city-level quantitative analysis in emerging economies

Rapid urbanization and subsequent urban land expansions have led to land use changes, emerging as a prominent source of anthropogenic carbon emissions in the developing world. While numerous studies have quantified land-use carbon emissions (LUCE), there is still a lack of rigorous statistical analyses examining the driving factors of LUCE, particularly in the post-2015 era, when stringent environmental pollution regulations and carbon emission reduction policies have been implemented worldwide. This study aims to assess city-level LUCE in emerging economies and to further investigate the drivers of inter-city variations in LUCE through an extended STIRPAT model, taking Guangdong Province in China as an example. The results indicate a substantial increase in LUCE from 2000 to 2020, reflecting a surge in energy consumption associated with land-use transitions from natural land to construction land. The growing disparity between direct and indirect carbon emissions underscores the increasing significance of construction land planning and management in achieving emission reduction goals. Furthermore, our findings from the extended STIRPAT model shed light on carbon neutrality pathways by revealing the potential for LUCE reduction through adopting sustainable built environment planning.