Increase in surface runoff in the central mountains of Mexico: lessons from the past and predictive scenario for the next century

Nicolas Gratiot, Clément Duvert, Lila Collet, D. Vinson, Julien Némery, C. Saenz-Romero

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The hydrological response of a medium scale mountainous watershed (Mexico) is analysed over half a century. The hydrograph separation highlights an increasing surface runoff contribution since the early 1970’s. This increase is attributed to land use changes while the meteorological forcing (rains) remains statistically table over the same period. As a consequence, the intensity of annual extreme floods has tripled up over the period of survey, increasing flood risks in the region. The paper ends with a climatic projection over the 21st century. The decrease of precipitation and the increase of temperature should accentuate the trend engaged since the 1970’s by reducing groundwater resources and increasing surface-runoff and associated risks.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)291-300
Number of pages10
JournalHydrology and Earth System Sciences
Volume14
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 12 Feb 2010

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