Inclusion of Climate Variables for Dengue Prediction Model: Preliminary Analysis

Loshini Thiruchelvam, Sarat Chandra Dass, Nirbhay Mathur, Vijanth Sagayan Asirvadam, Balvinder Singh Gill

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

This study aimed to build best dengue cases prediction model for Petaling district, in Selangor. Linear Least Square estimation method is used to build the models and Mean Square Error (MSE) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value is used as tool of comparison between models. Prior to model development, the respective variables are first normalized, using 0-1 normalization procedure. Next, significant predictors are identified from weather variables namely mean temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall. Thirdly, feedback data was included and identified if could yield better prediction models. Few model orders of lag time are built simultaneously, and the most accurate prediction model was selected for Petaling district. Study found dengue prediction models including all three climate variables of mean temperature, relative humidity, cumulative rainfall and together with previous dengue cases to have the lowest MSE and AIC values. This is aligned with previous studies which selected model with climate and previous dengue cases models as best model fit. Thus, study proposed future studies to incorporate all three climate variables and previous dengue cases while developing dengue prediction models.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2021 IEEE International Conference on Signal and Image Processing Applications (ICSIPA)
PublisherIEEE
ISBN (Electronic)9781665435925
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 20 Oct 2021
Event7th IEEE International Conference on Signal and Image Processing Applications 2021 - Virtual, Online, Malaysia
Duration: 13 Sep 202115 Sep 2021
https://sps.ieeemy.org/icsipa2021/

Conference

Conference7th IEEE International Conference on Signal and Image Processing Applications 2021
Abbreviated titleICSIPA 2021
Country/TerritoryMalaysia
CityVirtual, Online
Period13/09/2115/09/21
Internet address

Keywords

  • Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)
  • cumulative rainfall
  • Dengue prediction models
  • Least Square Estimation Method
  • Mean Square Error (MSE)
  • mean temperature
  • relative humidity

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Computer Science Applications
  • Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition
  • Signal Processing
  • Health Informatics

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