How does industrial transformative process shape the spatial dynamics of urban development?

Rapid global expansion of built-up areas and industrialization has led to significant environmental challenges, particularly in terms of anthropogenic carbon emissions. Consequently, it has become crucial to comprehensively understand the spatial dynamics of urban built-up areas and the associated socioeconomic transitions. This understanding serves as a critical foundation for formulating effective land use and industrial policies that not only promote economic sustainability but also contribute to the pursuit of environment related- sustainable development goals (SDGs). However, our knowledge about the dynamic relationship between urban industrial structure and built-up area patterns is limited. To address this gap, we use partial redundancy analysis (PRDA) to quantify the relative impact of key industrial employment sectors. The results indicate that the transformation of industrial structure has a significant influence on the spatial dynamics and morphologies of urban built-up areas. In addition, we found that the decline in agricultural population is associated with an increase in spatial isolation, while the growth of the manufacturing population affects changes in spatial extent and regularity. Furthermore, the combined impact of industrial and economic drivers accounts for up to 24.4% of the dynamics of urban built-up areas, with industrial transformation having a 3.82% greater impact than economic growth. These findings provide a valuable understanding of the interconnectedness between the spatial evolution of built-up areas and socioeconomic transitions, not only in China but also in other city clusters worldwide. Moreover, they might contribute to the knowledge of carbon neutrality pathways, further promoting sustainable development efforts.