Hedging as an adaptive measure for climate change induced water shortage at the Pong reservoir in the Indus Basin Beas River, India

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Abstract

This study investigated the adaptive capacity of static and dynamic hedging operating policies to shore up the performance, i.e. reliability and vulnerability, in irrigation water supply of Pong reservoir in India, during climate change. The policies were developed using genetic algorithm optimisation and used to force reservoir simulations for different climate change perturbed inflow series, whence derive the performance. For static hedging, the hedging fraction remains constant throughout the year while for dynamic hedging, this fraction varies monthly or seasonally. Results showed that static hedging was effective at tempering the systems vulnerability from its high of ≥60% to lower than 25%, while maintaining an acceptable volume-based reliability. Further simulations with dynamic hedging provided only modest improvements in these two indices. The significance of this study is its demonstration of the effectiveness of hedging as a climate change adaptation measure by limiting water shortage impacts. It also demonstrates that simple static hedging can match more complex dynamic hedging policies.
LanguageEnglish
Pages554-566
Number of pages13
JournalScience of the Total Environment
Volume687
Early online date5 Jun 2019
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 5 Jun 2019

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river basin
climate change
vulnerability
genetic algorithm
water
simulation
inflow
water supply
irrigation
policy
index
climate change adaptation

Cite this

@article{f551a06b29e1418dbd592711bda547b4,
title = "Hedging as an adaptive measure for climate change induced water shortage at the Pong reservoir in the Indus Basin Beas River, India",
abstract = "This study investigated the adaptive capacity of static and dynamic hedging operating policies to shore up the performance, i.e. reliability and vulnerability, in irrigation water supply of Pong reservoir in India, during climate change. The policies were developed using genetic algorithm optimisation and used to force reservoir simulations for different climate change perturbed inflow series, whence derive the performance. For static hedging, the hedging fraction remains constant throughout the year while for dynamic hedging, this fraction varies monthly or seasonally. Results showed that static hedging was effective at tempering the systems vulnerability from its high of ≥60{\%} to lower than 25{\%}, while maintaining an acceptable volume-based reliability. Further simulations with dynamic hedging provided only modest improvements in these two indices. The significance of this study is its demonstration of the effectiveness of hedging as a climate change adaptation measure by limiting water shortage impacts. It also demonstrates that simple static hedging can match more complex dynamic hedging policies.",
author = "Adeloye, {Adebayo J.} and Dau, {Quan V.}",
year = "2019",
month = "6",
day = "5",
doi = "10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.021",
language = "English",
volume = "687",
pages = "554--566",
journal = "Science of the Total Environment",
issn = "0048-9697",
publisher = "Elsevier",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Hedging as an adaptive measure for climate change induced water shortage at the Pong reservoir in the Indus Basin Beas River, India

AU - Adeloye, Adebayo J.

AU - Dau, Quan V.

PY - 2019/6/5

Y1 - 2019/6/5

N2 - This study investigated the adaptive capacity of static and dynamic hedging operating policies to shore up the performance, i.e. reliability and vulnerability, in irrigation water supply of Pong reservoir in India, during climate change. The policies were developed using genetic algorithm optimisation and used to force reservoir simulations for different climate change perturbed inflow series, whence derive the performance. For static hedging, the hedging fraction remains constant throughout the year while for dynamic hedging, this fraction varies monthly or seasonally. Results showed that static hedging was effective at tempering the systems vulnerability from its high of ≥60% to lower than 25%, while maintaining an acceptable volume-based reliability. Further simulations with dynamic hedging provided only modest improvements in these two indices. The significance of this study is its demonstration of the effectiveness of hedging as a climate change adaptation measure by limiting water shortage impacts. It also demonstrates that simple static hedging can match more complex dynamic hedging policies.

AB - This study investigated the adaptive capacity of static and dynamic hedging operating policies to shore up the performance, i.e. reliability and vulnerability, in irrigation water supply of Pong reservoir in India, during climate change. The policies were developed using genetic algorithm optimisation and used to force reservoir simulations for different climate change perturbed inflow series, whence derive the performance. For static hedging, the hedging fraction remains constant throughout the year while for dynamic hedging, this fraction varies monthly or seasonally. Results showed that static hedging was effective at tempering the systems vulnerability from its high of ≥60% to lower than 25%, while maintaining an acceptable volume-based reliability. Further simulations with dynamic hedging provided only modest improvements in these two indices. The significance of this study is its demonstration of the effectiveness of hedging as a climate change adaptation measure by limiting water shortage impacts. It also demonstrates that simple static hedging can match more complex dynamic hedging policies.

U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.021

DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.06.021

M3 - Article

VL - 687

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EP - 566

JO - Science of the Total Environment

T2 - Science of the Total Environment

JF - Science of the Total Environment

SN - 0048-9697

ER -