Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time

Sarah C. Elmendorf, Gregory H. R. Henry, Robert D. Hollister, Robert G. Bjork, Anne D. Bjorkman, Terry V. Callaghan, Laura Siegwart Collier, Elisabeth J. Cooper, Johannes H. C. Cornelissen, Thomas A. Day, Anna Maria Fosaa, William A. Gould, Jarngerdur Gretarsdottir, John Harte, Luise Hermanutz, David S. Hik, Annika Hofgaard, Frith Jarrad, Ingibjörg Svala Jónsdóttir, Frida KeuperKari Klanderud, Julia A. Klein, Saewan Koh, Gaku Kudo, Simone I. Lang, Val Loewen, Jeremy L. May, Joel Mercado, Anders Michelsen, Ulf Molau, Isla H. Myers-Smith, Steven F. Oberbauer, Sara Pieper, Eric Post, Christian Rixen, Clare H. Robinson, Niels Martin Schmidt, Gaius R. Shaver, Anna Stenstrom, Anne Tolvanen, Orjan Totland, Tiffany Troxler, Carl-Henrik Wahren, Patrick J. Webber, Jeffery M. Welker, Philip Andrew Wookey

    Research output: Contribution to journalLiterature review

    499 Citations (Scopus)


    Understanding the sensitivity of tundra vegetation to climate warming is critical to forecasting future biodiversity and vegetation feedbacks to climate. In situ warming experiments accelerate climate change on a small scale to forecast responses of local plant communities. Limitations of this approach include the apparent site-specificity of results and uncertainty about the power of short-term studies to anticipate longer term change. We address these issues with a synthesis of 61 experimental warming studies, of up to 20 years duration, in tundra sites worldwide. The response of plant groups to warming often differed with ambient summer temperature, soil moisture and experimental duration. Shrubs increased with warming only where ambient temperature was high, whereas graminoids increased primarily in the coldest study sites. Linear increases in effect size over time were frequently observed. There was little indication of saturating or accelerating effects, as would be predicted if negative or positive vegetation feedbacks were common. These results indicate that tundra vegetation exhibits strong regional variation in response to warming, and that in vulnerable regions, cumulative effects of long-term warming on tundra vegetation and associated ecosystem consequences have the potential to be much greater than we have observed to date.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)164-175
    Number of pages12
    JournalEcology Letters
    Issue number2
    Publication statusPublished - Feb 2012


    • Alpine
    • Arctic
    • climate warming
    • long-term experiment
    • meta-analysis
    • plants
    • GROWTH

    Cite this

    Elmendorf, S. C., Henry, G. H. R., Hollister, R. D., Bjork, R. G., Bjorkman, A. D., Callaghan, T. V., Collier, L. S., Cooper, E. J., Cornelissen, J. H. C., Day, T. A., Fosaa, A. M., Gould, W. A., Gretarsdottir, J., Harte, J., Hermanutz, L., Hik, D. S., Hofgaard, A., Jarrad, F., Jónsdóttir, I. S., ... Wookey, P. A. (2012). Global assessment of experimental climate warming on tundra vegetation: heterogeneity over space and time. Ecology Letters, 15(2), 164-175.