Abstract
This study has developed optimal hedging policies for the multi-purpose Ubonratana Reservoir in northeastern Thailand based on its existing rule curves. The hedging policy was applied whenever the reservoir storage falls below a critical level for each month of the year. The decision variables, i.e. the set of monthly storages defining the critical rule curve that triggers rationing and the rationing ratio, were optimized by genetic algorithm (GA). Both single stage (i.e. with one critical rule curve and one rationing ratio) and two-stage (with two critical rule curves and ratios) of the hedging policy were considered in the optimization. To test the effect of the optimized hedging policies on reservoir performance, simulations were carried out, forced alternatively with the existing rule curves (i.e. without hedging) and the two optimized hedging policies. Performance was summarized in terms of reliability (time-and volume-based) and vulnerability. The results showed that the vulnerability was significantly reduced by using the optimized hedging rules. However, the number of water shortages increased with the optimized rules, causing the time-based reliability to worsen significantly. This should not be of concern since, although the number of shortages increased, the associated shortage quantities on most of these additional occasions were small, leaving the volumetric reliability largely unchanged.
Original language | English |
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Title of host publication | IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports |
Publisher | IAHS Press |
Pages | 507-512 |
Number of pages | 6 |
Volume | 364 |
ISBN (Print) | 9781907161421 |
Publication status | Published - 1 Jan 2014 |
Event | Bologna IAHS 2014 - 6th IAHS-EGU International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management - Bologna, United Kingdom Duration: 4 Jun 2014 → 6 Jun 2014 |
Conference
Conference | Bologna IAHS 2014 - 6th IAHS-EGU International Symposium on Integrated Water Resources Management |
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Abbreviated title | IAHS 2014 |
Country/Territory | United Kingdom |
City | Bologna |
Period | 4/06/14 → 6/06/14 |
Keywords
- Hedging policy
- Reservoir operation
- Rule curves
- Sustainability
- Thailand
- Ubonratana
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- General Earth and Planetary Sciences