Generalised storage-yield-reliability modelling: Independent validation of the Vogel-Stedinger (V-S) model using a Monte Carlo simulation approach

Adebayo J. Adeloye, Sudip Pal, Michelagh O'Neill

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    2 Citations (Scopus)

    Abstract

    The generalised storage-yield-reliability model by Vogel and Stedinger (V-S) is widely used in the literature but there has never been a complete validation of the model with measured river runoff data. This study investigated the problem using three different river runoff data records within a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The V-S model is predicated on the assumption that the probability distribution of reservoir capacity can be described by the 3-parameter log-normal density function. The results showed that the V-S model over-predicted reservoir capacity quantiles for most yield (or demand) ratios but especially so for very high (>0.8) yield ratios. Further investigations revealed that the poor performance of the V-S model was caused by the huge errors associated with its expression for two of the three parameters of the 3-parameter log-normal distribution, i.e. the variance and the lower limit, although the mean of the distribution was relatively well predicted. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)234-240
    Number of pages7
    JournalJournal of Hydrology
    Volume388
    Issue number3-4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 15 Jul 2010

    Keywords

    • Generalised storage-yield model
    • Sequent-peak algorithm
    • Validation
    • Vogel and Stedinger

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