Generalised storage-yield-reliability modelling

Independent validation of the Vogel-Stedinger (V-S) model using a Monte Carlo simulation approach

Adebayo J. Adeloye, Sudip Pal, Michelagh O'Neill

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

    Abstract

    The generalised storage-yield-reliability model by Vogel and Stedinger (V-S) is widely used in the literature but there has never been a complete validation of the model with measured river runoff data. This study investigated the problem using three different river runoff data records within a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The V-S model is predicated on the assumption that the probability distribution of reservoir capacity can be described by the 3-parameter log-normal density function. The results showed that the V-S model over-predicted reservoir capacity quantiles for most yield (or demand) ratios but especially so for very high (>0.8) yield ratios. Further investigations revealed that the poor performance of the V-S model was caused by the huge errors associated with its expression for two of the three parameters of the 3-parameter log-normal distribution, i.e. the variance and the lower limit, although the mean of the distribution was relatively well predicted. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

    Original languageEnglish
    Pages (from-to)234-240
    Number of pages7
    JournalJournal of Hydrology
    Volume388
    Issue number3-4
    DOIs
    Publication statusPublished - 15 Jul 2010

    Fingerprint

    modeling
    simulation
    runoff
    river
    distribution
    parameter
    demand

    Keywords

    • Generalised storage-yield model
    • Sequent-peak algorithm
    • Validation
    • Vogel and Stedinger

    Cite this

    @article{93d4cd5d5ff547a68f311b25aef1ee43,
    title = "Generalised storage-yield-reliability modelling: Independent validation of the Vogel-Stedinger (V-S) model using a Monte Carlo simulation approach",
    abstract = "The generalised storage-yield-reliability model by Vogel and Stedinger (V-S) is widely used in the literature but there has never been a complete validation of the model with measured river runoff data. This study investigated the problem using three different river runoff data records within a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The V-S model is predicated on the assumption that the probability distribution of reservoir capacity can be described by the 3-parameter log-normal density function. The results showed that the V-S model over-predicted reservoir capacity quantiles for most yield (or demand) ratios but especially so for very high (>0.8) yield ratios. Further investigations revealed that the poor performance of the V-S model was caused by the huge errors associated with its expression for two of the three parameters of the 3-parameter log-normal distribution, i.e. the variance and the lower limit, although the mean of the distribution was relatively well predicted. {\circledC} 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",
    keywords = "Generalised storage-yield model, Sequent-peak algorithm, Validation, Vogel and Stedinger",
    author = "Adeloye, {Adebayo J.} and Sudip Pal and Michelagh O'Neill",
    year = "2010",
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    doi = "10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.04.043",
    language = "English",
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    pages = "234--240",
    journal = "Journal of Hydrology",
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    }

    Generalised storage-yield-reliability modelling : Independent validation of the Vogel-Stedinger (V-S) model using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. / Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Pal, Sudip; O'Neill, Michelagh.

    In: Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 388, No. 3-4, 15.07.2010, p. 234-240.

    Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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    T2 - Independent validation of the Vogel-Stedinger (V-S) model using a Monte Carlo simulation approach

    AU - Adeloye, Adebayo J.

    AU - Pal, Sudip

    AU - O'Neill, Michelagh

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    AB - The generalised storage-yield-reliability model by Vogel and Stedinger (V-S) is widely used in the literature but there has never been a complete validation of the model with measured river runoff data. This study investigated the problem using three different river runoff data records within a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The V-S model is predicated on the assumption that the probability distribution of reservoir capacity can be described by the 3-parameter log-normal density function. The results showed that the V-S model over-predicted reservoir capacity quantiles for most yield (or demand) ratios but especially so for very high (>0.8) yield ratios. Further investigations revealed that the poor performance of the V-S model was caused by the huge errors associated with its expression for two of the three parameters of the 3-parameter log-normal distribution, i.e. the variance and the lower limit, although the mean of the distribution was relatively well predicted. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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