Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

Tom Britton, Thomas House, Alun L. Lloyd, Denis Mollison, Steven Riley, Pieter Trapman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

22 Citations (Scopus)
41 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing)? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)54-57
Number of pages4
JournalEpidemics
Volume10
Early online date5 Jun 2014
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2015

Keywords

  • Endemicity
  • Extinction
  • Genetic evolution
  • Global transmission
  • Stochastic epidemics

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Epidemiology
  • Virology
  • Parasitology
  • Microbiology

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