Evaluation of simple wind power forecasting methods applied to a long-term wind record from Scotland

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Abstract

We present an analysis of the ability to predict the
power output from a nominal wind turbine or wind farm a few
hours ahead using only locally available data – either the current
and recent wind speed or power output. A third method
combines the current state with knowledge of the long-term
climatology.
The wind speed data were taken from a 46-year long record of
hourly readings at a Scottish coastal site and converted to power
output and electricity production using a generic wind turbine
power curve. The wind speed data or the calculated power
output at a given time were used to predict the output a few hours
ahead, either using persistence, a linear model, or a model based
on the mean daily cycle extracted from the long-term record.
Since many wind farm operators base their forecast on current
wind speed or output measures alone, this analysis will provide
some quantification of the quality of this approach, either to help
them plan their operation or be able to put these simple methods
in quantitative context of more complex methods.
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2012
EventInternational Conference on Renewable Energies and Power Quality - Santiago de Compostela, Spain
Duration: 28 Mar 201230 Mar 2012

Conference

ConferenceInternational Conference on Renewable Energies and Power Quality
Abbreviated titleICREPQ’12
CountrySpain
CitySantiago de Compostela
Period28/03/1230/03/12

Keywords

  • Wind energy
  • Forecasting

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  • Cite this

    Fruh, W-G. (2012). Evaluation of simple wind power forecasting methods applied to a long-term wind record from Scotland. Paper presented at International Conference on Renewable Energies and Power Quality, Santiago de Compostela, Spain. http://icrepq.com/icrepq'12/715-fruh.pdf