EOR vs. infill well drilling: sensitivity to operational and economic parameters

Gamal Abdalla Alusta, Eric James Mackay, Julian Fennema, Khari Amer Armih, Ian Collins

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

In a previous publication we introduced a methodology to assist in choosing between Enhanced Oil recovery (EOR) and infill well drilling (SPE 143300). Operating companies are often reluctant to use EOR techniques when they have the option of infill well drilling instead. Reasons for this include how operating companies assess and manage risk and uncertainties. The methodology developed includes performing reservoir calculations to evaluate additional recovery using both techniques, and then using data generated as input to economic analysis. In the previous work, polymer flooding for 10 years after two years of waterflooding was studied using a synthetic reservoir model. The technique involved running a range of reservoir simulation scenarios to test possible recovery outcomes; these outcomes then provide input data that will be used in the probabilistic economic evaluation tool to be introduced as a follow up in this paper.

This current paper presents the results of the impact of operational factors, such as delaying the start of polymer flooding. This involves assessing the best possible timing for polymer injection to achieve optimal economics. This type of assessment is possible because the economic model developed and presented here allows input from multiple reservoir simulation sensitivity calculations. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is then performed to establish confidence in the method, and test economic uncertainties and the risks associated with implementation of polymer flooding. Defining variables with a probability distribution can establish more precisely the economic value of the polymer flooding project. The analysis of uncertainty involves measuring the degree to which input contributes to uncertainty in the output.

MCS is a statistics based analysis tool that yields probability impact on Net Present Value (NPV) of the key operational parameters included in the project (oil, water and polymer production and injection costs, polymer concentration, timing, etc.) and various economic factors (oil price, polymer cost, etc).
Original languageEnglish
Pages1-17
Number of pages17
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2012
EventNorth Africa Technical Conference and Exhibition - Cairo, Egypt
Duration: 20 Feb 201222 Feb 2012

Conference

ConferenceNorth Africa Technical Conference and Exhibition
CountryEgypt
CityCairo
Period20/02/1222/02/12

Fingerprint

Infill drilling
Well drilling
Recovery
Economics
Polymers
Well flooding
Oils
Economic analysis
Probability distributions
Costs
Industry
Statistics

Cite this

Alusta, G. A., Mackay, E. J., Fennema, J., Armih, K. A., & Collins, I. (2012). EOR vs. infill well drilling: sensitivity to operational and economic parameters. 1-17. Paper presented at North Africa Technical Conference and Exhibition, Cairo, Egypt. https://doi.org/10.2118/150454-MS
Alusta, Gamal Abdalla ; Mackay, Eric James ; Fennema, Julian ; Armih, Khari Amer ; Collins, Ian. / EOR vs. infill well drilling : sensitivity to operational and economic parameters. Paper presented at North Africa Technical Conference and Exhibition, Cairo, Egypt.17 p.
@conference{9442b2726148448d89b941f8990c3dd3,
title = "EOR vs. infill well drilling: sensitivity to operational and economic parameters",
abstract = "In a previous publication we introduced a methodology to assist in choosing between Enhanced Oil recovery (EOR) and infill well drilling (SPE 143300). Operating companies are often reluctant to use EOR techniques when they have the option of infill well drilling instead. Reasons for this include how operating companies assess and manage risk and uncertainties. The methodology developed includes performing reservoir calculations to evaluate additional recovery using both techniques, and then using data generated as input to economic analysis. In the previous work, polymer flooding for 10 years after two years of waterflooding was studied using a synthetic reservoir model. The technique involved running a range of reservoir simulation scenarios to test possible recovery outcomes; these outcomes then provide input data that will be used in the probabilistic economic evaluation tool to be introduced as a follow up in this paper. This current paper presents the results of the impact of operational factors, such as delaying the start of polymer flooding. This involves assessing the best possible timing for polymer injection to achieve optimal economics. This type of assessment is possible because the economic model developed and presented here allows input from multiple reservoir simulation sensitivity calculations. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is then performed to establish confidence in the method, and test economic uncertainties and the risks associated with implementation of polymer flooding. Defining variables with a probability distribution can establish more precisely the economic value of the polymer flooding project. The analysis of uncertainty involves measuring the degree to which input contributes to uncertainty in the output. MCS is a statistics based analysis tool that yields probability impact on Net Present Value (NPV) of the key operational parameters included in the project (oil, water and polymer production and injection costs, polymer concentration, timing, etc.) and various economic factors (oil price, polymer cost, etc).",
author = "Alusta, {Gamal Abdalla} and Mackay, {Eric James} and Julian Fennema and Armih, {Khari Amer} and Ian Collins",
year = "2012",
month = "2",
doi = "10.2118/150454-MS",
language = "English",
pages = "1--17",
note = "North Africa Technical Conference and Exhibition ; Conference date: 20-02-2012 Through 22-02-2012",

}

Alusta, GA, Mackay, EJ, Fennema, J, Armih, KA & Collins, I 2012, 'EOR vs. infill well drilling: sensitivity to operational and economic parameters', Paper presented at North Africa Technical Conference and Exhibition, Cairo, Egypt, 20/02/12 - 22/02/12 pp. 1-17. https://doi.org/10.2118/150454-MS

EOR vs. infill well drilling : sensitivity to operational and economic parameters. / Alusta, Gamal Abdalla; Mackay, Eric James; Fennema, Julian; Armih, Khari Amer; Collins, Ian.

2012. 1-17 Paper presented at North Africa Technical Conference and Exhibition, Cairo, Egypt.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

TY - CONF

T1 - EOR vs. infill well drilling

T2 - sensitivity to operational and economic parameters

AU - Alusta, Gamal Abdalla

AU - Mackay, Eric James

AU - Fennema, Julian

AU - Armih, Khari Amer

AU - Collins, Ian

PY - 2012/2

Y1 - 2012/2

N2 - In a previous publication we introduced a methodology to assist in choosing between Enhanced Oil recovery (EOR) and infill well drilling (SPE 143300). Operating companies are often reluctant to use EOR techniques when they have the option of infill well drilling instead. Reasons for this include how operating companies assess and manage risk and uncertainties. The methodology developed includes performing reservoir calculations to evaluate additional recovery using both techniques, and then using data generated as input to economic analysis. In the previous work, polymer flooding for 10 years after two years of waterflooding was studied using a synthetic reservoir model. The technique involved running a range of reservoir simulation scenarios to test possible recovery outcomes; these outcomes then provide input data that will be used in the probabilistic economic evaluation tool to be introduced as a follow up in this paper. This current paper presents the results of the impact of operational factors, such as delaying the start of polymer flooding. This involves assessing the best possible timing for polymer injection to achieve optimal economics. This type of assessment is possible because the economic model developed and presented here allows input from multiple reservoir simulation sensitivity calculations. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is then performed to establish confidence in the method, and test economic uncertainties and the risks associated with implementation of polymer flooding. Defining variables with a probability distribution can establish more precisely the economic value of the polymer flooding project. The analysis of uncertainty involves measuring the degree to which input contributes to uncertainty in the output. MCS is a statistics based analysis tool that yields probability impact on Net Present Value (NPV) of the key operational parameters included in the project (oil, water and polymer production and injection costs, polymer concentration, timing, etc.) and various economic factors (oil price, polymer cost, etc).

AB - In a previous publication we introduced a methodology to assist in choosing between Enhanced Oil recovery (EOR) and infill well drilling (SPE 143300). Operating companies are often reluctant to use EOR techniques when they have the option of infill well drilling instead. Reasons for this include how operating companies assess and manage risk and uncertainties. The methodology developed includes performing reservoir calculations to evaluate additional recovery using both techniques, and then using data generated as input to economic analysis. In the previous work, polymer flooding for 10 years after two years of waterflooding was studied using a synthetic reservoir model. The technique involved running a range of reservoir simulation scenarios to test possible recovery outcomes; these outcomes then provide input data that will be used in the probabilistic economic evaluation tool to be introduced as a follow up in this paper. This current paper presents the results of the impact of operational factors, such as delaying the start of polymer flooding. This involves assessing the best possible timing for polymer injection to achieve optimal economics. This type of assessment is possible because the economic model developed and presented here allows input from multiple reservoir simulation sensitivity calculations. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is then performed to establish confidence in the method, and test economic uncertainties and the risks associated with implementation of polymer flooding. Defining variables with a probability distribution can establish more precisely the economic value of the polymer flooding project. The analysis of uncertainty involves measuring the degree to which input contributes to uncertainty in the output. MCS is a statistics based analysis tool that yields probability impact on Net Present Value (NPV) of the key operational parameters included in the project (oil, water and polymer production and injection costs, polymer concentration, timing, etc.) and various economic factors (oil price, polymer cost, etc).

U2 - 10.2118/150454-MS

DO - 10.2118/150454-MS

M3 - Paper

SP - 1

EP - 17

ER -

Alusta GA, Mackay EJ, Fennema J, Armih KA, Collins I. EOR vs. infill well drilling: sensitivity to operational and economic parameters. 2012. Paper presented at North Africa Technical Conference and Exhibition, Cairo, Egypt. https://doi.org/10.2118/150454-MS