Eine Fortschreibung des Rehabilitationsbedarfs in Deutschland bis 2040 anhand demografischer Faktoren

Introduction The demographic changes in Germany leads to a significant shift in the composition of the population and the workforce, this affecting the future need for medical rehabilitation. Method This paper estimates the future change in rehabilitation demand based on a forecast for demographic changes till 2040. First, the sensitivity of the rehabilitation demand with respect to demographic factors is estimated. Second, the demographic factors are projected by stochastic methods, resulting in forecasts for the future need for medical rehabilitation. Results The projections show that the short-term demand is likely to rise. Theoretically, yearly wage increases of about 2.2% are needed for covering the increasing medical rehabilitation costs from 2010 till 2017. For the mid-term demand, the model predicts a slight decline in rehabilitation cases. Conclusion Considering all these facts, the budget for rehabilitation will probably not cover the future costs for rehabilitation. However, the long-term forecast is subject to considerable uncertainty.